Aaron Schatz· Jul 25, 2025
Presenting the FTN Football Almanac 2025 projections, Schatz projects the 49ers as the NFC's best team (11.2 wins) and NFC West champion, the Jaguars to win the AFC South with nine wins, the Commanders at 10.6 wins winning the NFC East ahead of Philadelphia, the Raiders at 8.3 wins, the Steelers and Cowboys both at 7.7 wins, and the Panthers last at 5.5 wins.
“Let's say you combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a division champion.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
13 checkable claims — 7 season win totals, 3 division winners, 2 depth chart calls and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 13 have settled, averaging 46.1 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
13 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersSan Francisco 49ersJul 25, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to win the division
“Let's say you combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a division champion.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersJacksonville JaguarsJul 25, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“You have the Jaguars projected to win the division. It's only by you know, half a game in your projections”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersWashington CommandersJul 25, 2025
Washington Commanders to win the division
“a better chance to win the NFC East over Philadelphia”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Depth Chart CallsBrock BowersLas Vegas RaidersJul 25, 2025
Brock Bowers to be 1st on the depth chart
“Jacoby Myers is a night slot receiver, but he's no one idea of a number one. But the number one is really Bowers.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- TE
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Power RankingsJul 25, 2025
“you have them in your overall DVOA projections for the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington is at five... the Panthers are dead last... You have the Saints projected to be like the thirtieth best team in the league.”
Miss · 30Scored 30a naive guess scored 60-60 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -60
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 30
- baseline:
- 60
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsTre HarrisLos Angeles ChargersJul 25, 2025
Tre Harris to be 1st on the depth chart
“They're going to depend on a second round rookie, probably to start Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired”
Close · 75Scored 75a naive guess scored 83.33-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Tre Harris
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsPittsburgh SteelersJul 25, 2025
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 7.7 wins
“You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
Close · 54Scored 54a naive guess scored 85-62 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- -62
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 54
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 7.7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsLas Vegas RaidersJul 25, 2025
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 8.3 wins
“we've got the Raiders with your projections getting eight point three wins... thirty eight point six percent chance of making the playoffs”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 35-70 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- -70
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 35
- predicted:
- 8.3
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsSan Francisco 49ersJul 25, 2025
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 11.2 wins
“You have the forty nine Ers at projected for eleven point two wins, which is the most in the NFC, it's the third most in the NFL.”
Hit · 84Scored 84a naive guess scored 5+158 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- 158
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 84
- baseline:
- 5
- predicted:
- 11.2
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsWashington CommandersJul 25, 2025
Washington Commanders to finish with 10.6 wins
“You have the Commanders at ten point six wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 10.6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsJacksonville JaguarsJul 25, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 9 wins
“you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have them at a fifty four point seven percent chance to make the playoffs.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 0+40 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsDallas CowboysJul 25, 2025
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 7.7 wins
“You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
Hit · 86Scored 86a naive guess scored 85+2 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- naive:
- 7.75
- skill:
- 2
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 86
- baseline:
- 85
- predicted:
- 7.7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsCarolina PanthersJul 25, 2025
Carolina Panthers to finish with 5.5 wins
“the Panthers are dead last, like five and a half wins, under ten percent chance to make the playoffs”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 75-50 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- -50
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 5.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Carolina PanthersMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Green Bay PackersClose · 40Sherman previewed every division: he picked Seattle to win the NFC West on a tiebreaker over San Francisco (both 11-11 wins), the Lions over the Packers in the North, the Eagles to run away with the East, Tampa Bay in the South, and Kansas City, Buffalo and the Ravens' division rivals in the AFC. He picked an Eagles–Chiefs Super Bowl with Philadelphia repeating, Joe Burrow for MVP, and gave a top-five power ranking.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 20Nick Wright walked through the Browns' quarterback situation and then gave leans and bets on every AFC team's win total, offering concrete win-count expectations for several clubs plus a call on Brock Bowers.
- Colin CowherdSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Cowherd takes the Titans over their five-and-a-half win total on the strength of Cam Ward and Brian Callahan, calls New England an eight-to-nine win team, picks Green Bay to win the NFC North, expects the Giants to lose all four games to Washington and Philadelphia, and sketches a quarterback ranking with C.J. Stroud around 10th and Baker Mayfield 11th.
- John MiddlekauffSeason Win Totals · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Middlekauff says Denver's floor is ten wins, predicts Miami implodes to four or five wins and a top-three-or-four draft slot with Tyreek Hill traded, thinks the 49ers beat expectations with nine or ten wins, sees the Patriots at eight or nine wins, calls the Chargers over 9.5 a lock, expects Jared Goff to make five or six Pro Bowls, and says the Packers are flying under the radar.
- Nick WrightSeason Win Totals · Denver BroncosMiss · 20Nick Wright gave his early AFC win-total leans: overs on the Jets, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs and Raiders, plus projected win ranges for the Dolphins, Texans, Chargers and Broncos, and predicted the Raiders take Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.
- Richard ShermanSeason Win Totals · Detroit LionsHit · 100Sherman picks the Chiefs to beat the Bills in the AFC Championship Game despite Buffalo's turnover dominance, and picks the Commanders to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. He also expects Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year, though he hedges that voters may give it to Lamar or Josh Allen.