Aaron SchatzJul 25, 2025
Presenting the FTN Football Almanac 2025 projections, Schatz projects the 49ers as the NFC's best team (11.2 wins) and NFC West champion, the Jaguars to win the AFC South with nine wins, the Commanders at 10.6 wins winning the NFC East ahead of Philadelphia, the Raiders at 8.3 wins, the Steelers and Cowboys both at 7.7 wins, and the Panthers last at 5.5 wins.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Aaron Schatz said
Let's say you combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a division champion.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- 7 Surprising Team Projections
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJul 25, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Division Winners | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Rankings | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Season Win Totals | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| All | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
How each call scored
13 checkable claims — 7 season win totals, 3 division winners, 2 depth chart calls and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 13 have settled, averaging 46.1 out of 100, against 48.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Division Winners1 hit · 2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
San Francisco 49ers to win the division
“Let's say you combine that with the really easy schedule, you have a division champion.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“You have the Jaguars projected to win the division. It's only by you know, half a game in your projections”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- yes
Washington Commanders to win the division
“a better chance to win the NFC East over Philadelphia”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −200
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
Depth Chart Calls1 hit · 1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Brock Bowers to be 1st on the depth chart
“Jacoby Myers is a night slot receiver, but he's no one idea of a number one. But the number one is really Bowers.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by receptions100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Brock Bowers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- TE
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Tre Harris to be 1st on the depth chart
“They're going to depend on a second round rookie, probably to start Trey Harris now that Mike Williams is retired”
No. 4called No. 1 · by receptions75Close75 − 83.33 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- LAC
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Tre Harris
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Power Rankings1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
“you have them in your overall DVOA projections for the year. The Eagles as the seventh best team in the NFL, So not that much different than where Washington is at five... the Panthers are dead last... You have the Saints projected to be like the thirtieth best team in the league.”
30Miss30 − 60 naive = −30 × 2 difficulty = −60 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −60
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 30
- baseline:
- 60
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Season Win Totals2 hits · 2 close calls · 3 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Pittsburgh Steelers to finish with 7.7 wins
“You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
10called 7.754Close54 − 85 naive = −31 × 2 difficulty = −62 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- PIT
- naive:
- 9.25
- skill:
- −62
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 54
- baseline:
- 85
- they said:
- 7.7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Las Vegas Raiders to finish with 8.3 wins
“we've got the Raiders with your projections getting eight point three wins... thirty eight point six percent chance of making the playoffs”
3called 8.30Miss0 − 35 naive = −35 × 2 difficulty = −70 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LV
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- −70
- what happened:
- 3
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 35
- they said:
- 8.3
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
San Francisco 49ers to finish with 11.2 wins
“You have the forty nine Ers at projected for eleven point two wins, which is the most in the NFC, it's the third most in the NFL.”
12called 11.284Hit84 − 5 naive = 79 × 2 difficulty = +158 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- SF
- naive:
- 7.25
- skill:
- 158
- what happened:
- 12
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 84
- baseline:
- 5
- they said:
- 11.2
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Washington Commanders to finish with 10.6 wins
“You have the Commanders at ten point six wins. That's about a win ahead of the Eagles.”
5called 10.60Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- naive:
- 10.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 10.6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 9 wins
“you have the Jaguars at nine wins. You have them at a fifty four point seven percent chance to make the playoffs.”
13called 920Miss20 − 0 naive = 20 × 2 difficulty = +40 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 40
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 20
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Dallas Cowboys to finish with 7.7 wins
“You have both the Steelers and the Cowboys as losing teams projected for seven point seven wins each.”
7called 7.786Hit86 − 85 naive = 1 × 2 difficulty = +2 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DAL
- naive:
- 7.75
- skill:
- 2
- what happened:
- 7
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 86
- baseline:
- 85
- they said:
- 7.7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Carolina Panthers to finish with 5.5 wins
“the Panthers are dead last, like five and a half wins, under ten percent chance to make the playoffs”
8called 5.550Close50 − 75 naive = −25 × 2 difficulty = −50 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CAR
- naive:
- 6.75
- skill:
- −50
- what happened:
- 8
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 5.5
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.
More season win totals
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Chicago Bears · Hit 100
Nick Wright lays out their season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Nick Wright predicts Shedeur Sanders stays behind Dylan Gabriel on the Browns depth chart, forecasts a season where Flacco is benched a third of the way in, Gabriel then fails, Shedeur then fails, and Cleveland drafts a quarterback next year. They also make a long list of win-total, playoff and division calls across the AFC North and beyond.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Kansas City Chiefs · Miss 0
In part two of their gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Rosenthal's under picks and a few freebie leans: Colts under 7.5 (possibly the worst team), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5 (possibly 2-15), Bears under 8.5, plus stated likes on Dolphins under 8.5, Giants over 5.5 and Ravens over 11.5.Gregg Rosenthal · Season Win Totals · Detroit Lions · Miss 0
Rosenthal made a series of over/under win-total picks: Lions over 10.5, Colts under 7.5, Vikings over 8.5, Jets over 5.5, Cowboys over 7.5 (and over 8 in a side challenge), Commanders under 9.5, Saints under 5.5, Bears under 8.5. They also predicted the Cowboys win 10 games and make the playoffs, and the Jets go 7-10.Nick Wright · Season Win Totals · Kansas City Chiefs · Miss 0
Wright picked Chiefs over 11.5, Buccaneers over 9.5, Raiders over 6.5 (plus a Raiders playoff berth), Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Jaguars over 7.5, and Bengals under 9.5 with Zac Taylor fired after missing the playoffs. They also had Commanders and Eagles both 11-6 with Washington winning the NFC East.