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Andrew Heaton

Writes at Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young)

Is Andrew Heaton accurate? Across 3 graded calls in 1 article, Andrew Heaton scores 25% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0, which means their calls were no better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

25%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 1 article.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 3

Heaton expected a very close election, marginally favoring Harris over Trump nationally, while saying he is fairly confident Republicans take the Senate and that Democrats probably win the House by only about two seats.3 graded calls · Oct 25, 2024
- “I think the Democrats will probably take the house, but it'll be by, like, two votes. Excuse me. By by two two seats.”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
  How this was scored
  right:
  no
  election year:
  2024
  skill:
  -102
  topic:
  elections
  result from:
  house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
  chamber:
  2024-house
  who controls it:
  Republican
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:

We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong — a misattributed quote, a claim we misread, a grade you disagree with — tell us and we will look at it.

100

they said:

Democratic

days before the vote when called:

difficulty:

1.02

the naive guess:

the party in control going in keeps it

Election Day:

2024-11-05

who controlled it before:

Republican

Think this grade is wrong?

“I am I am $5 confident Kamala Harris is gonna win. I would not be very surprised if Trump won... this is a coin flip, and I'm marginally thinking Kamala.”

Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill

How this was scored

right:: no
race:: 2024-president
election year:: 2024
skill:: 0
topic:: elections
held going in by:: Democratic
in their words:: I am $5 confident Kamala Harris is gonna win
result from:: fec-2024-president
who won:: Donald Trump
accuracy:: 0
baseline:: 0
race name:: 2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:: electoral-college
they said:: Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:: 11
difficulty:: 1.02
the winner's party:: Republican
the naive guess:: the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:: 2024-11-05
the result is:: certified
the party they named:: Democratic

Think this grade is wrong?

“The only thing that I'm fairly confident on is I do think the Republicans will take the senate. I think that just the the map looks very favorable to them.”

Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill

How this was scored

right:: yes
election year:: 2024
skill:: 102
topic:: elections
result from:: senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:: 2024-senate
who controls it:: Republican
accuracy:: 100
baseline:: 0
they said:: Republican
days before the vote when called:: 11
difficulty:: 1.02
the naive guess:: the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:: 2024-11-05
who controlled it before:: Democratic

Think this grade is wrong?