Batya Ungar-Sargon

Not ranked yetBuilding a record: 1 graded article

-25.25MissedTakes Scorevs a naive guess · 0 = no better

42.5%Accuracyhow often the calls landed

2Graded callsacross 1 article

0Waitingnot graded yet

Is Batya Ungar-Sargon accurate?

Across 2 graded calls in 1 article, Batya Ungar-Sargon scores 42.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -25.25, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims.

That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

How accurate are election pundits overall? →

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.

All 2 calls · one square per call

2Close100%

Where Batya Ungar-Sargon stands

All 21 ranked election pundits · dot size = graded calls · hover a dot for the name

MissedTakes Score

How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.

By kind

accuracy · graded calls

No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.

Also called, too few graded to rateSeat Counts (2)

A kind is rated once it has five graded calls.

Every graded call, article by article

HitCloseMissWaiting

2 graded calls in 1 article, newest first.

Nov 3, 2022
Ungar-Sargon endorsed Kraushaar's forecast outright, adopting their call of a roughly 20-seat Republican House gain and a Republican Senate of 52 seats.Seat Counts · 2 calls
2 close calls · 0 of 2 graded calls landed
Show the 2 graded callsHide the grading
- “Batya Ungar Sargon? I'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh says on this”
  Close · 45

Accuracy alone

The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.

Standings

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Batya Ungar-Sargon isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.

How sure we are

Graded articles1 of 30

Ranked at 10 · a full record at 30

Graded calls2 of 2

Kinds rated0

A kind is rated at five graded calls; 1 more kind has fewer

Scored 45

a naive guess scored 55

-10.1 skill

How this was scored

election year:: 2022
party:: Republican
seats after:: 222
skill:: −10.1
topic:: elections
what happened:: 9
result from:: house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:: 2022-house
what they counted:: net seats
accuracy:: 45
baseline:: 55
they said:: 20
days before the vote when called:: 5
difficulty:: 1.01
seats before:: 213
the naive guess:: no change from the previous election
Election Day:: 2022-11-08
the naive guess said:: 0

Think this grade is wrong?

“Batya Ungar Sargon? I'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh says on this”

Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 80-40.4 skill

How this was scored

election year:: 2022
party:: Republican
seats after:: 49
skill:: −40.4
topic:: elections
what happened:: 49
result from:: senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:: 2022-senate
what they counted:: seats held
accuracy:: 40
baseline:: 80
they said:: 52
days before the vote when called:: 5
difficulty:: 1.01
seats before:: 50
the naive guess:: no change from the previous election
Election Day:: 2022-11-08
the naive guess said:: 50

Think this grade is wrong?