Batya Ungar-SargonNov 3, 2022
Ungar-Sargon endorsed Kraushaar's forecast outright, adopting their call of a roughly 20-seat Republican House gain and a Republican Senate of 52 seats.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Honestly with Bari WeissHear the original
What Batya Ungar-Sargon said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh says on this because, he's he's always right.
- Where it was said
- Honestly with Bari Weiss
- The episode
- Who Do Voters Hate More? A Midterm Roundtable.
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidNov 3, 2022
- Election DayNov 8, 2022
- GradedOct 10, 2026
- 1Seat Counts“Batya Ungar Sargon? I'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh says on this”
- 2Seat Counts“Batya Ungar Sargon? I'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh says on this”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “Batya Ungar Sargon? I'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh…”1 | Seat Counts | 9 | 45 | 55 | −10.1 | |
| “Batya Ungar Sargon? I'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh…”2 | Seat Counts | 49 | 40 | 80 | −40.4 | |
| 2 calls · 2 close calls · all settled | 42.5 | 67.5 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive2 checkable claims — 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 42.5 out of 100, against 67.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
“Batya Ungar Sargon? I'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh says on this”
What happened9called 2045Close · naive 5545this call−55a naive guess=−10worse than naive×1.01difficulty=−10.1skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- election year:
- 2022
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 222
- skill:
- −10.1
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 9
- result from:
- house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
- chamber:
- 2022-house
- what they counted:
- net seats
- accuracy:
- 45
- baseline:
- 55
- they said:
- 20
- days before the vote when called:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- seats before:
- 213
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the naive guess said:
- 0
“Batya Ungar Sargon? I'll just say I'm with him. Whatever Josh says on this”
What happened49called 5240Close · naive 8040this call−80a naive guess=−40worse than naive×1.01difficulty=−40.4skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- election year:
- 2022
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 49
- skill:
- −40.4
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 49
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2022-senate
- what they counted:
- seats held
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 80
- they said:
- 52
- days before the vote when called:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- seats before:
- 50
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the naive guess said:
- 50
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
42.5naive 67.5
More seat counts
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ben Shapiro · Seat Counts · Miss 20
On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. They also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House.Steve Deace · Seat Counts · Miss 0
On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. They also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if their margin were squeezed.