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Writes at The Downballot (newsletter)
Across 1 graded call in 1 article, Daniel Donner scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 106, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 2 calls · one square per call
1hits100% of graded
1waitingnot graded yet
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
1 graded calls in 1 article, newest first.
“Either would be more than enough for Democrats to take back the House, and neither outcome would be surprising.”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Daniel Donner isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.