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Writes at The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
Across 2 graded calls in 1 article, Derek Murphy scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 50, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are NFL experts overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 2 calls · one square per call
2hits100% of graded
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
2 graded calls in 1 article, newest first. Every take from Derek Murphy, including the ones still waiting →
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
The same 87, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Derek Murphy isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams
“I think the Seahawks dog walked the Rams.”
Closing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 56%.
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
“it convinced me that these guys have a real shot going to the Super Bowl, and I think it's gonna happen”