Derek MurphyJan 23, 2026
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Derek Murphy said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think the Seahawks dog walked the Rams.
- Where it was said
- The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
- The episode
- PMS 2.0 1493 - NFL Conference Championship Weekend Preview/Picks, Adam Schefter, Bill Cowher, Shams Charania, Jim Cantore, & AJ Hawk
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJan 23
- GradedAug 17
- 1Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl“it convinced me that these guys have a real shot going to the Super Bowl, and I think it's gonna happen”
- 2Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams“I think the Seahawks dog walked the Rams.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl1 | Conference Champions | NE and SEA won | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 2 calls · 2 hits · all settled | 100 | 50 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 1 conference champion and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Conference ChampionsSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked SEA100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE, SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
2Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 56%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.Dave Richard · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Richard picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Pluym picks the Seahawks over the Cardinals.Pamela Maldonado · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Maldonado picks the Seahawks in Week 9.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.Gregg Rosenthal · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Rosenthal picks the Patriots to beat the Broncos in a close, low-scoring AFC Championship in Denver (while liking Denver to cover the 4.5 points), takes the Seahawks over the Rams in a defensive NFC Championship they peg around 23-19, and forecasts a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.Richard Sherman · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Sherman picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams comfortably at home, 27-17, with a defensive score, and says the winner of that NFC Championship game will win the Super Bowl. They also pick the Patriots to win comfortably in Denver, 21-15, and assumes Matthew Stafford will be named league MVP.