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Writes at The NPR Politics Podcast
Is Domenico Montanaro accurate? Across 4 graded calls in 1 article, Domenico Montanaro scores 88.75% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 70.28, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“The Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is favored to win there in Montana.”
“almost all of their seats are likely to go their way except for lean Republican category of Texas now because Democrat Colin Allred... But that race has still seemed to be something that's probably a three to four point race in favor of Republicans.”
“They're already favored to win the seat that Joe Manchin retired from, the senator from West Virginia.”
“It's why it's so difficult for Jon Tester, despite his popularity in the state, to outrun, you know, Trump, you know, who's gonna probably win the state by double digits or more.”