Domenico Montanaro· Oct 22, 2024

He said Republicans are favored to take the open West Virginia seat and that Tim Sheehy is favored to beat Jon Tester in Montana, that Texas leans Republican with Cruz likely winning by three to four points, and that Trump will probably carry Montana by double digits.

“The Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is favored to win there in Montana.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The NPR Politics Podcast · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 race margins and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 88.8 out of 100, against 19.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsOct 22, 2024
“almost all of their seats are likely to go their way except for lean Republican category of Texas now because Democrat Colin Allred... But that race has still seemed to be something that's probably a three to four point race in favor of Republicans.”
Close · 55Scored 55a naive guess scored 15+40.8 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
40.8
topic:
elections
what happened:
8.5
in their words:
probably a three to four point race in favor of Republicans
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
55
baseline:
15
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
8.5
their party:
Republican
their range:
3,4
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsOct 22, 2024
“It's why it's so difficult for Jon Tester, despite his popularity in the state, to outrun, you know, Trump, you know, who's gonna probably win the state by double digits or more.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 64.4+36.31 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
36.31
topic:
elections
what happened:
19.93
in their words:
probably win the state by double digits or more
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
64.4
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
19.93
their party:
Republican
their range:
10,100
the naive guess said:
16.37
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“The Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy, is favored to win there in Montana.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
favored to win
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 22, 2024
“They're already favored to win the seat that Joe Manchin retired from, the senator from West Virginia.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
in their words:
already favored to win
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race margins

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.