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Writes at The Downballot (newsletter)
Across 1 graded call in 1 article, Stephen Wolf scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0, which means their calls were no better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 1 calls · one square per call
1hits100% of graded
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
1 graded calls in 1 article, newest first.
“Democrats only need to hold their current legislative supermajorities, which they are heavily favored to do (they are also strong favorites to retain the governor's office).”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Stephen Wolf isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.