WaltAug 1, 2026
In a rolling 'Disaster Ratings' feature covering NFL injuries, retirements and suspensions across multiple seasons, the site grades how damaging each situation is and makes scattered forecasts about replacement starters, individual games and team outlooks.
Published in writing · Walter FootballRead the original
What Walt said
The quartet of McCaffrey, Jennings, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle will be enough for the 49ers to make a deep run into the playoffs, but the margin for error has shrunk.
- Where it was published
- Walter Football
- The piece
- NFL Disaster Ratings: Retirement and Injury
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidAug 1
- PlayedOct 18
- GradedOct 18–19
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Outcome Picks | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Surprise Team Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | |
| Playoff Picks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Division Winners | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 |
How each call scored
19 checkable claims — 11 depth chart calls, 5 game outcome picks, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 20 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 19 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game Outcome Picks1 hit · 1 miss · 3 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Los Angeles Rams to beat Cardinals
“they were expected to lose to the Lions and beat the Cardinals even with him”
Cardinals 18–16Cardinals at Rams0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- ARI
- score:
- 18-16
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Houston Texans to beat Jaguars
“Not having Campbell will make defeating the Texans extremely difficult, but this is a game Jacksonville is likely to lose anyway.”
Texans 34–31Texans at Jaguars100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- HOU
- score:
- 34-31
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Buffalo Bills to beat Cardinals
“The Bills should be able to handle the Cardinals in Week 1 without Samuel”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Jaguars
“The other team is the Chiefs, and the Jaguars probably weren't going to win that game anyway.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Detroit Lions to beat Rams
“they were expected to lose to the Lions and beat the Cardinals even with him”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Surprise Team Calls1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Arizona Cardinals to beat expectations
“I consider the Cardinals an underrated team that could potentially sneak into the playoffs in a weak NFC.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Depth Chart Calls11 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Taliese Fuaga to be 1st on the depth chart
“the Saints will be forced into starting a rookie and the anemic Trevor Penning at tackle. The rookie, Tallies Fuaga, may pan out”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Cam Smith to be 1st on the depth chart
“Second-round rookie Cam Smith will have to fill the void.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Broderick Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“Pittsburgh will now have to go back to Jones because Fautanu is dealing with a knee injury.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Tyleik Williams to be 1st on the depth chart
“the Lions also have first-round rookie Tyleik Williams to start next to D.J. Reader”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Patrick Paul to be 1st on the depth chart
“His replacement will be 2024 second-round pick Patrick Paul, who was woeful in four full games last year.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Joseph Ossai to be 1st on the depth chart
“The Bengals are still OK on the edge because they have Joseph Ossai ready to step into a full-time starting role”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Olumuyiwa Fashanu to be 1st on the depth chart
“his injury will allow first-round rookie Olu Fashanu to start”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Oren Burks to be 1st on the depth chart
“Oren Burks will step in, and he can do an OK job in relief, but he's a clear downgrade from Dean.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Trevor Penning to be 1st on the depth chart
“the Saints will be forced into starting a rookie and the anemic Trevor Penning at tackle”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Amarius Mims to be 1st on the depth chart
“it's unclear how well Amarius Mims will play in his place”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Playoff Picks1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs
“The quartet of McCaffrey, Jennings, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle will be enough for the 49ers to make a deep run into the playoffs”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Division Winners1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division
“even if the Jaguars get off to a bit of a slow start, they should still be able to win their weak division”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Los Angeles Rams, Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, Taliese Fuaga, Cam Smith, Buffalo Bills, Broderick Jones, Tyleik Williams, Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Paul, Joseph Ossai, Detroit Lions, Sam Darnold, San Francisco 49ers, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, New York Jets, Oren Burks, Trevor Penning, Amarius Mims, Jacksonville Jaguars
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Michael Moore · Depth Chart Calls · Shedeur Sanders · Hit 100
In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. They also expect Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.Jacob Herlin · Depth Chart Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Herlin published Week 7 fantasy D/ST rankings with projections for 28 team defenses, led by Houston, Minnesota and Cleveland. They also expect Cleveland to post a fourth straight top-10 fantasy defense result, and predicts Jalon Daniels starts another week for Tampa Bay while J.J. McCarthy takes over as the Giants' starter.