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Nick Brinkerhoff· Oct 24, 2026

Predicts a 23-20 Dolphins win over the Jets.

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 42.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Miami Dolphins 23 — Jets 20

    “Nick Brinkerhoff: Dolphins 23, Jets 20”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 42.18+96.56 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    28-25
    skill:
    96.56
    they picked:
    MIA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    42.18
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    12
    naive home margin:
    −0.28
    predicted margin:
    3

    Closing line (Oct 25): Jets by 3.5, total 39.5 · this 23–20 calls a Dolphins win (by 3; the line gave the Dolphins about 1 in 3 (34%)) and more points (43).

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