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Bryan DeArdo· Nov 8, 2026

DeArdo picks the Bears to beat the Buccaneers on Sunday night in a defensive game, predicting a 20-16 final score.

“I'm picking the Bears in a game that will likely come down to defense and Caleb Williams making a few key completions down the stretch.”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 97.6 out of 100, against 93.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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The game in this take

1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Chicago Bears 20 — Buccaneers 16

    “I'm picking the Bears in a game that will likely come down to defense and Caleb Williams making a few key completions down the stretch. Score: Bears 20, Buccaneers 16”

    Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 93.16+6.96 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    24-27
    skill:
    6.96
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    97.62
    baseline:
    93.16
    difficulty:
    1.56
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    10
    naive home margin:
    0.13
    predicted margin:
    4

    Closing line (Nov 8): Bears by 6.5, total 47.5 · this 20–16 calls a closer game (Bears by 4) and fewer points (36).

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