Dallas Cowboys: Pundits Picked Dallas 19-1 Over the Buccaneers, and Dallas Lost at Home | MissedTakes Daily

What went wrong with the field's pick on Tampa Bay?

Nineteen of the 20 pundits we tracked on the Buccaneers-Cowboys game picked Dallas to win, and Dallas lost 24-16 at home. Only one voice took Tampa Bay. Among the seven pundits who also called a final score, the closest miss was still 18 points off; the average accuracy across all 28 graded calls on that game was 18 out of 100, a result bad enough that simply picking the home team would have scored higher on the win-loss call alone.

The size of the miss wasn't really about the final margin. Pundits weren't hedging: Pete Prisco called it "Cowboys 34, Bucs 14" on October 7, Walt had Dallas winning by 21, and Colin Cowherd said flatly on October 8, "I'll take Dallas tonight, but not because of coaching." None of them were close. Tampa Bay, which entered the week without a win, left Dallas with one.

That single result lines up with a wider pattern in how pundits have called Cowboys games this season: across 69 graded game-outcome picks on Dallas, the field is averaging just 24.6 percent accuracy, with an average skill score of -61.85, well below what picking the home team every time would produce. Score predictions on the Cowboys have fared a little better (55.6 percent accuracy on 35 graded calls), but the direction is the same: the field has struggled to call Dallas games this year more than it struggles elsewhere.

Which way are pundits leaning on the Packers?

The field is split heading into Sunday night's Packers-Cowboys game, and at least one voice has already broken from the crowd that got burned on Tampa Bay. Garrett Podell picked Green Bay on October 18, arguing that Dallas' defense, even with cornerback Joey Porter Jr. back, "won't be able to stifle Love, Watson and Golden through the air." But Nick Wright backed Dallas on October 16, saying he isn't confident in the Packers' pass defense, and Chris Broussard also took Dallas that day, citing the team's desperation after the Week 5 loss. Mitch Goldich picked Dallas too, in a straight-up sweep of all 14 Week 6 games. The corner room, where Porter Jr.'s return is the central storyline, has been one of the field's weaker spots on Dallas all season: cornerback calls about the Cowboys are averaging just 40.2 percent accuracy across 26 graded takes, the lowest of any position with real volume.

Which Cowboys forecasters have actually earned trust?

Among pundits with at least five graded Cowboys calls, Jeff Cavanaugh stands out both for volume and accuracy: 85.5 percent across 29 graded calls, mostly roster-spot projections, the largest Cowboys-specific sample anyone on our board carries. No one else approaches that volume.

At the other end, Randy Gurzi has gone 0 for his 6 graded Cowboys calls, and Rich Eisen is at 12.5 percent on 8 graded calls, both well below the field's already shaky Cowboys-specific baseline. None of these samples are large enough to call a verdict on anyone's broader body of work, but they do show which voices have actually been tested on Dallas calls this season, and which haven't been tested much at all.

One place the field has done better: Cowboys-related mock draft calls, which sit at 58.2 percent accuracy across 84 graded picks, with a positive average skill score. Picking who Dallas drafts has gone noticeably better for pundits than picking who Dallas beats.

Where did the week's best and worst calls land outside Dallas?

Across the league, 535 calls were graded in the last seven days and 476 new ones were published. The strongest graded calls were mostly 53-man roster projections: Hondo Carpenter nailed three separate Raiders roster calls and Blaine Grisak called the Rams' entire 53-man roster correctly, each earning a perfect skill score. The worst calls of the week were also roster projections, with misses on Eagles, Texans, Panthers and Commanders practice-squad calls that scored at the bottom of the scale.

On the season's award ballots, Matthew Stafford won MVP after collecting only 24 of 68 picks tracked, less than a third of the field. Atop the overall leaderboard, Damonza Byrd and Donnie Druin hold the top two spots, though both are working from fewer than 15 graded calls so far; the fuller picture, including larger-sample pundits like Lance Zierlein and Pat Fitzmaurice, is on the leaderboard.