Jeff Cavanaugh

Jeff Cavanaugh covers the Dallas Cowboys for the DLLS Dallas Cowboys podcast and appears on The Rich Eisen Show. His work spans roster projections, draft positioning, and player rankings, with a particular focus on defensive personnel and breakout candidates in the Cowboys organization.

Writes at DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)

Every take from Jeff Cavanaugh, including the ones still waiting →

Is Jeff Cavanaugh accurate? Across 40 graded calls in 8 articles, Jeff Cavanaugh scores 78.34% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 20.16, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

78.34%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

20.16

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 8 articles. 63 more not yet settled.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

92.86% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

What they call, and how it goes

The record split by kind of claim — five graded calls minimum before a kind shows here. A pundit can be sharp on drafts and ordinary on game picks, and averaging that away is how a number stops meaning anything.

Roster Spot Calls23 graded89.73 accuracy
Mock Draft Picks10 graded82.44 accuracy
Game Outcome Picks6 graded62.5 accuracy

Form

Rolling accuracy over their last fifteen graded calls, in the order the claims were made. The dashed line is their career average — the question this answers is whether the number above is who they are or who they were.

earliest callscareer avg 86 ┄latest form: 80

Graded calls · 40

Jeff went game-by-game through the Cowboys schedule, initially arriving at 13-4 before flipping a game to settle on a 12-5 final record prediction, with Dallas beating the Giants, Commanders, Ravens, Buccaneers, Packers, Cardinals, Colts, 49ers, Titans, Eagles (home), plus wins to close, and losing to the Texans, Eagles (road), Seahawks and Rams.2 graded calls · Sep 3, 2026
- Dallas Cowboys to beat Baltimore Ravens
  “I'll say the Cowboys start three and o.”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored
  won:
  BAL
  score:
  34-31
  skill:
  0
  they picked:
  DAL
  season:
  2026
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  0
  the naive pick:
  DAL
  difficulty:

Jeff projected the Cowboys' offensive 53-man roster: nine offensive linemen (with Bass, Shelton, Leverett and Cornelius as the depth pieces and Nate Thomas and Keegan cut), three tight ends, Javonte Williams and Malik Davis atop the backfield, and five receivers with Mingo in and Camden Brown headed to the practice squad. He also gave reception and passing projections and said Jayshawn Barham will be starting before long.7 graded calls · Aug 26, 2026

Jonathan Mingo to make the roster
“who serves you better? Mingo or Camden Brown? The answer is Jonathan Mingo... Mingo's on the team.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Jonathan Mingo
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
TJ Bass to make the roster
“TJ Bass makes the team. Right? You're at six.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
TJ Bass
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Camden Brown to make the roster
“Is Camden Brown gonna make the 53 initially? No.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Camden Brown
season:
2026
claimed:
he does not make the 53
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Ajani Cornelius to make the roster
“Cornelius? Yeah. That's what I would do. Cornelius has been better... So he stays, and Keegan goes, and we're gonna keep nine.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Ajani Cornelius
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Luke Schoonmaker to make the roster
“So Luke Schoonmaker is tied in number three, and everyone else is going home except Michael Trigg.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Luke Schoonmaker
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Nick Leverett to make the roster
“Bass Shelton, Leverett. And Cornelius or Thomas?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Nick Leverett
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Drew Shelton to make the roster
“Shelton's gonna make it... They'll keep the draft back. They'll keep Shelton.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
200
player:
Drew Shelton
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?

Building his projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.16 graded calls · Aug 25, 2026

Von Miller to make the roster
“congratulations to Von Miller on making the football team”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Von Miller
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Quinnen Williams to make the roster
“Put Quentin at the left. ... I got Quinton making the team.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Quinnen Williams
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Curtis Robinson to make the roster
“the Curtis Robinson can go and, Robert Pattinson or whatever”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
-200
player:
Curtis Robinson
season:
2026
claimed:
he does not make the 53
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
1
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
2
weeks on the practice squad:
2
Think this grade is wrong?
Shemar James to make the roster
“Shamar James on the team. Shamar James on the team.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Shemar James
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Markquese Bell to make the roster
“So Marquise Bell is making your football team.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Markquese Bell
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Malachi Lawrence to make the roster
“Malachi Lawrence gonna be in there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
200
player:
Malachi Lawrence
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Otito Ogbonnia to make the roster
“But Tito goes to the top. Put Tito Obonia as the right defensive end”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Otito Ogbonnia
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Jalen Thompson to make the roster
“So it's safety, Jalen Thompson, Malik Hooker. Bang and bang.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Jalen Thompson
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
DeMarvion Overshown to make the roster
“Overshone and Barham is what I say are the first two moving over there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
DeMarvion Overshown
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Kenny Clark to make the roster
“I got Quinton making the team. I got Kenny making the team.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Kenny Clark
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
L.T. Overton to make the roster
“Let's just be honest. We know Overton's gonna be here. ... I just wanted to give him some notes as he makes the team.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
200
player:
L.T. Overton
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Jaishawn Barham to make the roster
“Overshone and Barham is what I say are the first two moving over there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
200
player:
Jaishawn Barham
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
P.J. Locke to make the roster
“So PJ Locke is in.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
P.J. Locke
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Rashan Gary to make the roster
“Put Esaraku and Gary, they can go as numbers one and two.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Rashan Gary
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Donovan Ezeiruaku to make the roster
“Put Esaraku and Gary, they can go as numbers one and two.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Donovan Ezeiruaku
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Malik Hooker to make the roster
“So it's safety, Jalen Thompson, Malik Hooker. Bang and bang.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
0
player:
Malik Hooker
season:
2026
claimed:
he makes the 53
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
weeks in the season:
18
weeks on the53:
3
weeks left when called:
18
first week on the53:
1
weeks on the practice squad:
0
Think this grade is wrong?

Broadcasting from the NFL Scouting Combine, Jeff calls Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles a guaranteed top-12 pick with a good chance of going top seven, expects him to run around a 4.5 forty, pegs Arvell Reese as the favorite to go No. 2 overall behind Fernando Mendoza at No. 1, and says Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods will be a first-round pick.5 graded calls · Feb 25, 2026

Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“And I think Arbel Reese is probably the favorite to be the number two overall pick behind Fernando Mendoza.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
87.81
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
87.81
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Think this grade is wrong?
Sonny Styles to be picked “guaranteed top 12 pick” (picks 1–12)
“the Ohio State linebacker, probable to I'll say guaranteed top 12 pick”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
guaranteed top 12 pick (picks 1–12)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“the favorite to be the number two overall pick behind Fernando Mendoza”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
100
Peter Woods to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
“you had Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods at one podium. He'll be a first round pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Peter Woods
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
29
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
first round pick (picks 1–32)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
Sonny Styles to be picked “a top seven or so pick” (picks 1–7)
“Starting to seem like he is a pretty good chance he's a top seven or so pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 100 against a shuffle’s 50+50 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
50
player:
Sonny Styles
season:
2025
zero at:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
7
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
a top seven or so pick (picks 1–7)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:

Jeff made his divisional-round picks: Denver over Buffalo, Seattle over San Francisco, Houston over New England, and the Rams over Chicago. He also guessed Clemson corner Avion Terrell will weigh around 180 pounds when measured at the combine.5 graded calls · Jan 16, 2026

Seattle Seahawks to beat niners
“niners at Seahawks is tomorrow night, and I picked the Seahawks because I think the niners are beat up... And so I took Seattle.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
6-41
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams to beat Bears
“Final playoff game of the weekend will be Sunday evening with your, Rams at Bears... On this one, I did take the quarterback”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
20-17
skill:
100
they picked:
LAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
CHI
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
“And he might be the lightest of the top corners. Like, I bet he's one eighty... When we're at the combine, they're gonna measure him.”
Close · 60Scored 59.91a naive guess scored 65.46-5.55 skill
How this was scored
off:
6
drill:
weight lbs
naive:
the average CB (190.96, from 240 results)
scale:
credit halves every 8.12 — one standard deviation for a CB
skill:
-5.55
player:
Avieon Terrell
result:
186
season:
2025
combine year:
2026
accuracy:
59.91
baseline:
65.46
predicted:
180
sigmas out:
0.74
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
Denver Broncos to beat Buffalo
“it was so hard for me to pull the trigger on Bo Nicks over Josh Allen... But, eventually, I settled on, yes. I will take Denver.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
30-33
skill:
0
they picked:
DEN
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this grade is wrong?
Houston Texans to beat Patriots
“Texans at Patriots. I took the Texans, but that may be recency bias... But I'm taking the Texans' defense to beat... The Patriots.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
16-28
skill:
-100
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this grade is wrong?