Steve Deace Flips to Republicans on Senate Control as Texas Splits Forecasters From Talkers | MissedTakes Election Brief
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Did Steve Deace just flip on Senate control?
Yes. Steve Deace went from calling a Democratic Senate to calling a Republican one inside four weeks. On September 28 he said "Democrats will come out of this with a fifty one forty nine senate majority." On October 23 he said "while Republicans maintain a small majority in the US senate." That same day he also attached a seat range to the new call, saying Republicans end up "anywhere from 50 to 52" seats. Deace's last-cycle record is middling, not strong: 54.1% accuracy across 70 graded calls, with a MissedTakes Score of 2.2, barely above the neutral baseline the score is built around.
Deace's swing lands in a field that has grown fast and split almost evenly. Twenty-three pundits have now called Senate control, up from just 3 four weeks ago, and they divide 12 Republican to 11 Democratic. The forecasters in that group lean the other way: 2 of 3 say Democratic, only 1 says Republican. Among talkers it's 11 Republican to 9 Democratic. The same day Deace moved right, Krystal Ball reaffirmed the Democratic side, saying Democrats have "a very strong chance to win back the Senate" on October 23, backed by a considerably stronger record than Deace's: 80% accuracy on 35 graded calls.
Who's deciding Texas's Senate race, the forecasters or the talkers?
The forecasters and the talkers are not looking at the same race. All three forecasters tracking the Texas Senate contest back James Talarico, while 12 of the 17 talkers back Ken Paxton. The field itself has quadrupled in four weeks, from 5 callers to 20, and Paxton still leads the overall count, 12 to 8.
That split cuts against both outside readings. Polymarket prices Talarico at 64 cents to Paxton's 37 as of October 24. VoteHub's polling average, built from 10 polls through October 21, has Talarico ahead 48.6% to 46.3%, a 2.3-point lead. The forecasters are reading the same numbers the market and polls show. The talkers, mostly, are not with them.
| Pundit | Group | Pick | Called | Last-cycle record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Skelley | Forecaster | Talarico ("narrowly favored, 58%") | Oct 8 | 72.9% on 8 graded calls, provisional |
| Sarah Isgur | Forecaster | Talarico | Oct 23 | 100% on 1 graded call, provisional |
| Chuck Todd | Talker | Talarico (also called it D+2) | Oct 22 | no graded record |
| Isaac Saul | Talker | Paxton | Oct 22 | 79.4% on 63 graded calls |
| Clay Travis | Talker | Paxton | Oct 23 | 71.1% on 55 graded calls |
| Buck Sexton | Talker | Paxton | Oct 23 | 59.9% on 25 graded calls |
Isaac Saul's Paxton call is the one that stands out. His record is one of the stronger ones on the site (79.4% accuracy, a MissedTakesScore of 46.6 across 63 graded calls), and he's on the side the market and every tracked forecaster have priced against.
Chuck Todd has made more calls this cycle than anyone we track, 109 so far and 33 in the last week alone, including his repeated Talarico picks here. He carries no graded record from the last cycle, so his volume comes with no track record attached yet.
On the record
The 2026 cycle holds 582 calls from 92 pundits, with 103 of those arriving in the last week and 17 new since yesterday's brief. None of this cycle's calls are graded yet; results won't come until Election Day closes the book. For the full spread of who's called what, see the election leaderboard and the US Elections hub.