Steve Deace· Oct 23, 2026
Deace predicted Democrats would take a narrow House majority of ten seats or fewer while Republicans hold onto the Senate with roughly 50 to 52 seats, and he also picked Mike Rogers to win Michigan's Senate race.
“I'm gonna predict Democrats end up with a small majority in the US house, 10 seats or less, while Republicans maintain a small majority in the US senate, like, say, anywhere from 50 to 52.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 control of congress, 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 23, 2026
“I I actually think Rogers is a good win too.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 23, 2026
“while Republicans maintain a small majority in the US senate”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 23, 2026
“Republicans maintain a small majority in the US senate, like, say, anywhere from 50 to 52”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 23, 2026
“I'm gonna predict Democrats end up with a small majority in the US house, 10 seats or less”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More control of congress
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tom BevanControl of CongressHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Megyn KellyControl of CongressHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- David SacksControl of CongressMiss · 0Sacks forecast a good night for Republicans, saying they would win the House and also take the Senate, driven by the economy and inflation.
- Jim GeraghtyControl of CongressHit · 100Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Simon RosenbergControl of CongressHit · 100Rosenberg, quoted from a weekend post, argued the nonpartisan Senate polling showed no red wave and that Democrats remained favored to win the Senate.
- Doug SchoenControl of CongressHit · 100Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.