Iowa's Two Senate Forecasters Split Evenly While Eight of Nine Talkers Stick With Hinson | MissedTakes Election Brief
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Which Iowa Senate forecasters disagree with the talkers?
Iowa's two forecasters on the Senate race are split evenly, one for each candidate, while the race's nine talkers back Ashley Hinson over Josh Turek by 8 to 1. Kyle Kondik called the race "Leans Republican" for Hinson on September 16; David Nir picked Turek on October 8. Kondik's record stands at one graded call this cycle, right on that one (accuracy 100, a MissedTakes Score of 0, which is the line for matching the result a straight favorite-pick would get). Nir carries 26 graded calls at 96.3 accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -0.5, just under that same line despite the high accuracy.
The talkers don't see the split the forecasters do. Anthony Salvanto called Iowa "leaning red right now in this race" on October 18 (2 graded calls, 85 accuracy). Chuck Todd said he was "bearish for Iowa Senate" on October 14. Ryan Girdusky has picked Hinson three times this cycle, most recently October 15 (16 graded calls, 63.6 accuracy, a score of 28.2). Ben Shapiro, Josh Holmes, Justin Robert Young, Gabe Fleisher and Clay Travis round out the Hinson talkers.
How has Iowa's field moved over the past month?
Four weeks ago Iowa's Senate race had six callers, all of them for Hinson; it now has 11, and Turek has drawn his first two backers. Nir's October 8 pick was the first; Isaac Saul followed on October 22 (63 graded calls, 79.4 accuracy, a score of 46.6). The market and the polls have not moved with the talkers' lean: Polymarket prices Hinson at 59 cents to Turek's 42 as of October 27, while VoteHub's seven-poll average through October 22 has Hinson up by 0.5 points, 46.2 to 45.7, the tightest lead of any Senate race we're tracking this cycle.
Who is the only pundit backing Osborn in Nebraska?
Ari Weitzman is the only pundit on record picking Dan Osborn in Nebraska, against four calls for Pete Ricketts. Weitzman has picked Osborn twice, on October 8 and again on October 22; his record so far is six graded calls this cycle, right on one of them (accuracy 20, a score of 20.4), too small a sample to read as a trend. The four Ricketts callers are Chuck Todd, who called the race "tilting to the GOP" on October 21; Girdusky on October 15; Josh Holmes on October 7; and Chris Cillizza on October 6.
What else arrived this week?
Erick-Woods Erickson filed six calls on October 26, including a seat count putting Democrats at 238 House seats alongside picks for Paxton in Texas, Rogers in Michigan, Cooper in North Carolina, Republicans for Senate control and Democrats for House control. CBS News put its own House seat count at 229 Democratic seats the day before, nine fewer than Erickson's number, while still calling the chamber for Democrats.
On the record
The 2026 cycle holds 599 calls from 93 pundits, including 12 forecasters, with 110 calls logged in the past week. The full board is on the election leaderboard and the US Elections hub.