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Writes at The Downballot (newsletter)
Is David Nir accurate? Across 9 graded calls in 5 articles, David Nir scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0, which means their calls were no better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“Jackson and Bishop are competing to succeed Democrat Josh Stein, who was favored to win the governorship even before Republican Mark Robinson's campaign imploded in September .”
“a critical goal with Democrat Josh Stein favored to win the governorship”
“Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is poised to easily win a seat in Congress, resigned from the legislature in July”
“Democrats need to win all three seats that are up this year to win a 4-3 majority—a tough task in a year when Donald Trump is poised to comfortably carry the Buckeye State.”
“Four are especially straightforward, involving races where Democratic incumbents look to be in solid shape for reelection... KS-03 (Rep. Sharice Davids): $320,000 cut”
“races where Democratic incumbents look to be in solid shape for reelection... OH-01 (Rep. Greg Landsman): $1 million cut”
“races where Democratic incumbents look to be in solid shape for reelection... MI-03 (Rep. Hillary Scholten): $600,000 cut”
“races where Democratic incumbents look to be in solid shape for reelection... PA-17 (Rep. Chris Deluzio): $1 million cut”
“Fellow Republican Troy Downing, who is running this year, is also airing a similar commercial attacking CI-126 in Montana's 2nd District, a dark red seat where he's on a glide path to victory.”