Maine's Senate Talkers Back Collins While the Market and the Only Forecaster Favor Jackson | MissedTakes Election Brief
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
How does Maine's Senate field split between Collins and Jackson?
Eleven of the 17 pundits who have called Maine's Senate race pick Susan Collins, six pick Troy Jackson, and every outside reading we track points away from the side the talkers prefer. Polymarket has Jackson at 67 cents to Collins's 33. VoteHub's average of five polls through October 26 has Jackson ahead 49.4% to 46.4%, a margin of 3 points. And the race's only forecaster in our count also picks Jackson.
Among the 16 talkers, Collins leads 11 to 5. The single forecaster call belongs to G. Elliott Morris, who put it this way on October 1: "leaning more towards the Democrats."
Who's picking each side, and what do their records look like?
Sean Spicer picked Collins on October 28, saying "I feel very bullish on Maine." Spicer carries a record of 16 graded calls at 85.9 accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 44.4, above zero meaning he beat picking the home team, though with that call count we treat it as a small sample. Comfortably Smug also picked Collins, on October 23, with a very different record behind it: 7 graded calls, 6.7 accuracy, and a score of -65.8.
On the Jackson side, Isaac Saul picked him twice, on October 8 and again October 22, backed by 63 graded calls at 79.4 accuracy and a score of 46.6. Tim Miller also picked Jackson, on October 28, with a smaller record of 13 graded calls and 40.3 accuracy.
Four weeks ago only 3 pundits had called Maine at all, 2 for Collins and 1 for Jackson. The field has since grown to 17, and that growth was not unique to Maine.
How has the field grown across other races since four weeks ago?
Control of the House added more new callers than any other subject we track, up from 13 pundits four weeks ago to 37 today, all 37 picking Democratic control. Michigan's Senate race added 18 callers in the same stretch.
| Race | Callers 4 weeks ago | Callers now | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control of the House | 13 | 37 | 24 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan | 11 | 29 | 18 |
| Control of the Senate | 11 | 25 | 14 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine | 3 | 17 | 14 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas | 9 | 20 | 11 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina | 5 | 16 | 11 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Ohio | 5 | 15 | 10 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina | 2 | 12 | 10 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota | 3 | 11 | 8 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia | 8 | 15 | 7 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa | 6 | 12 | 6 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire | 4 | 10 | 6 |
Who is standing alone against the field this week?
Ben Shapiro is the only one of Alaska's 10 Senate callers who picks the Republican party without naming a candidate, a call he made on October 14 and repeated October 28. The other 9 split between Mary Peltola (7 callers) and the named Republican, Dan S. Sullivan (2 callers). Shapiro's record stands at 81 graded calls, 63.9 accuracy, and a score of 25.3.
Peltola is favored elsewhere in the readings we track: Polymarket prices her at 71 cents, and the two VoteHub polls through October 16 average her at 49.5%. Among forecasters, Kyle Kondik also picks Peltola, though his record carries just 1 graded call so far, graded correct, and we treat that as too small to read much into.
On the record
We have tracked 686 calls this cycle from 99 pundits, none of them graded yet with four days left before polls close. The full tally of who picked whom sits on the election leaderboard and the US Elections hub.