Dolphins 28, Jets 25: Points for 7 Pundits Who Backed Miami's First Win

Miami's 28-25 road win over New York in Week 7 settled 62 graded calls, and the field leaned hard the wrong way. Just 7 of 55 pundits picked the Dolphins, who were 0-5 going in; the other 48 took the Jets at home. Average accuracy across every call on the game landed at 29 out of 100.

How Lopsided Was The Field's Lean On This Game?

Nearly nine of every ten pundits counted on this game, 48 of 55, picked New York to beat Miami at home, and all 48 were wrong. Only seven sided with the Dolphins, who won by a final score of 28-25. The median predicted home margin among pundits who gave an exact score was a four-point Jets win; the Jets actually lost by three.

Which Calls Got The Final Score Right?

Nick Brinkerhoff called it exactly: Dolphins 23, Jets 20, a predicted margin of three points that matched the final margin precisely, missing by zero. That take alone is worth 96.56 in skill, since picking the road team correctly beats the pundit site's naive home-team baseline by a wide margin.

Alain Poupart wrote for The Sporting News on October 24 that the Dolphins would "upset the Jets," predicting a 24-20 final that landed one point off the real margin (skill 92.58, accuracy 97.62). Ten days earlier, in a different piece, Poupart had already flagged this specific matchup as Miami's best shot at a breakthrough, writing the game after the bye against the Jets "certainly is one that's very winnable." That early outcome call, made nearly two weeks out, also graded as a hit.

Several other pundits backed Miami outright without a score attached. Jourdan Rodrigue wrote, "I'm picking the dolphins to win their first game. Of the season. The New York jets." Mike Kadlick and Kyle "Gump" Cathcart both picked Miami outright, and Carter Bahns, writing in late September when the Dolphins sat at 0-3, had already flagged this Week 7 trip to New York as one of Miami's most winnable games on the schedule. Furthest out of all: Seth Rollins, who named Miami his preseason sleeper team back in July and guaranteed the Dolphins would finish ahead of the Jets.

Where Did The Missed Calls Land?

Seventeen pundits published an exact score, and only Brinkerhoff's landed on the right winner. The next-closest misses still had New York winning: Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz (Jets 24-23) missed by four points, and both Poupart and Pete Prisco called Jets 19-17, missing by five. At the other end, Chris Simms took the Jets 28-14 (missed by 17, skill -30.68) and Mitchell Eisenstein had the Jets 31-14 (missed by 20, skill -42.61), the two widest misses on the board.

Five more score calls missed by double digits beyond this table: John Breech and Tyler Sullivan both had Jets 23-16 (missed by 10), Jeremy Pargo had Jets 24-16 (missed by 11), and Simms and Eisenstein closed out the list at 17 and 20 points off, respectively.

Did This Break Any Streaks?

Brinkerhoff's exact score is also his entire graded history on the site so far, two calls, both on this game, both perfect, which is a strong debut but too small a sample to rank. Poupart's record runs much deeper: 101 graded calls overall at 80.32% accuracy, built mostly on roster-spot calls. On game outcomes specifically, he is now 4 for 4; on score predictions, where this game added one hit and one miss, he sits at 64.53% across eight graded calls. Tyler Sullivan, whose Jets 23-16 call here was his third different scoreline on this same game across three separate articles, carries a 62.92% score-prediction accuracy across 101 graded calls. His miss here fits that pattern rather than standing out from it; his outright-winner accuracy (72.78% across 40 calls) has generally run well ahead of his score accuracy.

What Does This Mean For The Rest Of The Dolphins' And Jets' Seasons?

Miami is now 1-5 and New York 2-5, and this was Miami's first win of the season after an 0-5 start that drew a wave of preseason 0-17 calls, including from John Breech, Jared Dubin, Douglas Clawson, Bill Simmons and Shanna McCarriston. Those forecasts are not settled yet, but a single win already rules out a winless finish. New York's preseason win-total calls mostly clustered in the four-to-seven-win range; at 2-5, the Jets remain on pace for that kind of season. For the fuller picture on both clubs, see the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets team pages, and check the pundit leaderboard for who is actually getting calls like this one right across the season.