Lions 20, Packers 17: Nine of 15 Pundits Had the Home Team, Two Came Within Two Points
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
The Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers 20-17 in Week 7, and the pundits we track leaned the right way without being unanimous about it. Nine of 15 graded pundits picked Detroit, the home team that won; the six who took Green Bay all lost. Two score predictions came within two points of the final margin, and one score pick missed by ten.
How did the pundits split on Lions-Packers?
Nine of 15 graded pundits picked the Lions, who won 20-17; the other six took the Packers, and none of them were right. The average accuracy across all 21 graded calls on this game, outcome and score picks combined, was 75. That's a majority call that held up, not a unanimous one. The six who took Green Bay gave specific reasoning for it, so their miss gets the same treatment as the hits below.
Which score predictions came closest?
Two pundits missed the final margin by two points. Pete Prisco wrote "Pick: Lions 34, Packers 33" on October 21, a score that put Detroit up one; the Lions won by three, and the call scored 95.24 accuracy with a MissedTakes Score of +5.36 (above zero means the call beat picking the home team, which is what that score measures). Jordan Dajani had it "Give me the Lions at home. … Prediction: Lions 35, Packers 30" on October 22, good for the same 95.24 accuracy and a +5.36 MissedTakes Score. Jared Dubin was three points off on both of his Week 7 picks, writing "I lean toward the Lions because they can beat you both ways" and projecting a 34-28 Lions score each time; both calls scored 92.86 accuracy.
| Pundit | Picked | Score called | Margin | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Prisco | Lions | 34-33 | +1 | 2 |
| Jordan Dajani | Lions | 35-30 | +5 | 2 |
| Jared Dubin | Lions | 34-28 | +6 | 3 |
| Bill Huber | Lions | 31-24 | +7 | 4 |
| Mitchell Eisenstein | Lions | 31-24 | +7 | 4 |
| Tyler Sullivan | Lions | 33-26 | +7 | 4 |
| Chris Simms | Packers | 34-31 | -3 | 6 |
| Richard Sherman | Packers | 23-20 | -3 | 6 |
| Chris Long | Lions | 27-17 | +10 | 7 |
| John Breech | Packers | 31-24 | -7 | 10 |
Which picks missed, and by how much?
Connor Rogers called the Packers outright on October 23: "I'm taking the Packers to win as well, which is an upset." Detroit won, and the pick scored 0 accuracy with a MissedTakes Score of -167. John Middlekauff leaned the same way on the same day: "So, kind of like the Packers on the road in this spot," also scoring 0 and -167. John Breech's score call missed by the widest margin on the board: he picked the Packers to win 31-24 on October 20, good for 40.48 accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -86.09 once Detroit won by three instead. Richard Sherman and Chris Simms both took Green Bay by three points, Sherman's "I got Green Bay 23-20" and Simms's "I'm gonna go Packers thirty four thirty one," and each scored 50 accuracy with a -70.18 MissedTakes Score, right about the size of the margin but wrong about who led it.
Did this interrupt any hot or cold streaks?
Pete Prisco's score-prediction accuracy sits at 56.21 across 137 graded calls this season; Saturday's 95.24 was well above that mark, not a typical week for him. Jordan Dajani's game-score accuracy runs to 62.69 over 82 graded calls, and this call beat that mark too, part of 89 graded calls he's made this season. Connor Rogers is right on 67.3% of his 45 graded game-outcome calls. This miss falls in the 32.7% he gets wrong, not a break from his season total.
What do the season calls on these two clubs still say?
Detroit carries 51 division-winner calls on the Lions' page, with John Breech setting Detroit at 12-5 as NFC North champions back on September 7 and Rich Eisen picking the Lions to win the division while expecting Green Bay to finish last, on September 2. Pete Prisco took the Packers to win that same division at the preseason, on September 8, and Bill Huber restated an 8-9 Packers finish as recently as October 19. Those season calls sit alongside Green Bay's 10 division-winner calls and the pundit leaderboard, where Prisco's close score call on this game is now part of his 140 graded takes.