Jaguars 42, Colts 7: Every Pundit Called the Winner, No One Called the Margin
Drafted by a language model from MissedTakes' graded data, then reviewed and approved by Ben Garves before publishing. How our posts are made
Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7 in Week 8, and every pundit we graded on the game's winner picked it that way. The split was 13-0 for the Jaguars, the field's only real debate was how badly the Colts would lose, and even that debate came up short: the five pundits who attached a score to the game all undersold the final margin by at least 17 points.
Did any pundit back the Colts?
No. Game room data shows all 13 pundits with a graded pick on this game took Jacksonville, and Jacksonville won by 35. A unanimous field getting a 35-point blowout right is not much of a test, but it is still worth recording: nobody gave Indianapolis a chance here.
How close did the score predictions get?
Not close, but two pundits came closer than the rest. Jake Arthur and Zach Hicks both called Jacksonville to win by 18 points, the nearest anyone got to the actual 35-point margin, and each scored 59.52 accuracy for missing by 17. Hicks, on ESPN, said before kickoff: "I hate how the Colts are going into this game, and I have it 38 to 20, Jacksonville, in this game." Arthur's call: "I think I'm gonna go, like, 31 to 13 Jacksonville. It feels another two plus score game, another 30 points for Jackson." Both calls carried a MissedTakes Score of 15.33, meaning both beat what picking the home team by itself would have produced. The outcome picks that didn't bother with a margin were just as one-sided. Richard Sherman said on Oct. 28: "Yeah, I expect them to dominate this game... Going away, give me Jacksonville." Sam Monson wrote two days later: "Jacksonville is now significantly better on both sides of the ball. You would expect them to roll." John Middlekauff asked: "Would anyone be shocked if Jacksonville just runs them out of the building?" Ryan Wormeli said: "I'm expecting the Jacks to smash in this game, to be perfectly honest with you." All four scored 100 accuracy for the outcome call, though with no credit above picking the home team, since Jacksonville hosted.
Which score call missed the margin by the most?
John Breech's was furthest off. Breech wrote on Oct. 27, "Jaguars 30-27 over Colts," a 3-point margin that missed the actual 35-point final by 32 points, the widest gap among the five score predictions and good for 50 accuracy. Pete Prisco ("Pick: Jaguars 30, Colts 16") and Chris Simms ("So I'm gonna go thirty one nineteen Jags") came in between, missing by 21 and 23 points, both scoring 50 accuracy as well. None of the three picked up any MissedTakes Score above the home-team pick; all three correctly named the winner but gave the margin call back.
Whose record did this result extend?
For Sherman, the correct pick keeps a strong run going: he's hit 68.03 accuracy across 98 graded game-outcome calls, with a MissedTakes Score of 18.32 on that type. For Monson, it's an exception, not a pattern: his game-outcome accuracy sits at 46.67 across 19 graded calls, with a MissedTakes Score of -5.18, meaning outcome picks have cost him value relative to just taking the home team. Breech's missed margin, meanwhile, falls below his own season average on score calls: 59.57 accuracy across 150 graded score predictions, with a MissedTakes Score of 8.4. His 30-27 call scored 50, under that line. Arthur and Hicks, by contrast, are each working from small samples, five and three graded score predictions respectively, so one call still moves their averages a great deal.
What were pundits saying about these two clubs all season?
Jacksonville's win totals ran hot all year: Nick Wright backed "13 wins like last year" on Sept. 4, and Pete Prisco wrote in September that the Jaguars, coming off 13 wins, "will be a better team this time around." Danny Parkins split with that view on the division, picking the Colts to win the AFC South on Sept. 3 and calling Jacksonville's chances "a big regression," while John Pluym's Nov. 1 piece had the Jaguars at 6-2 and in command of the division. Jacksonville's win-total calls for the season, 22 in all, and Indianapolis's 13, sit on each club's page, alongside the wider pundit standings where Bryan DeArdo's 80.96 MissedTakes Score currently tops the field.