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Writes at Check the Mic (podcast)
Across 25 graded calls in 8 articles, Sam Monson scores 55.21% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 32.55, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are NFL experts overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 60 calls · one square per call
16hits64% of graded
9misses36%
35waitingnot graded yet
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
25 graded calls in 8 articles, newest first — page 1 of 2. Every take from Sam Monson, including the ones still waiting →
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
The same 87, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Sam Monson isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
New York Giants to beat Washington commanders
“I'm gonna go with the Giants buying into JJ McCarthy one time”
Closing line (Nov 12): Giants by 1.5 · a toss-up, Commanders 47%, Giants 53%.
New York Giants to beat Eagles
“Giants to win and cover.”
Closing line (Nov 8): Giants by 3 · favorite pick, Giants 59%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
San Francisco 49ers to beat Raiders
“They're about to go o and three because they face San Francisco, Seattle, Denver.”
Closing line (Nov 8): 49ers by 8.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 3 in 4 (77%).
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Jets
“I think the Chiefs win, but I think the Jets keep it within 10.”
Closing line (Nov 8): Chiefs by 9.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (80%).
Dallas Cowboys to beat Arizona
“it's a team that Dallas should roll against... Gonna go with Dallas to win and cover. Same.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Cowboys by 7 · favorite pick, Cowboys about 3 in 4 (74%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
New England Patriots to beat Miami
“their bounced back after the rough start to the season, I think looks legit, and I would expect them to fairly easily handle Miami.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Patriots by 7 · favorite pick, Patriots about 3 in 4 (74%).
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Titans
“Like, they're they're the better team on both sides of the ball. They should win this game pretty comfortably”
Closing line (Nov 1): Bengals by 13.5 · favorite pick, Bengals about 6 in 7 (86%).
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Colts
“Jacksonville is now significantly better on both sides of the ball. You would expect them to roll.”
Closing line (Nov 1): Jaguars by 10 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (80%).