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Bill Kristol

Writes at The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)

Is Bill Kristol accurate? Across 2 graded calls in 2 articles, Bill Kristol scores 0% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 0, which means their calls were no better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

Accuracy

How often they were right.

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 2 articles.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 2

Kristol predicted that Kamala Harris would win the presidential election, citing a late break toward her, the gender gap, and minority voters not deserting her as much as polls suggested.Nov 4, 2024
- “I think Harris is gonna win. I do think there's a bit of a late break... So I think the Carys wins, and I think we know the winner by basically no...”
  Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
  How this was scored
  right:
  no
  race:
  2024-president
  election year:
  2024
  skill:
  0
  topic:
  elections
  held going in by:
  Democratic
  result from:
  fec-2024-president
  who won:
  Donald Trump
  accuracy:
  0
  baseline:
  0

We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong — a misattributed quote, a claim we misread, a grade you disagree with — tell us and we will look at it.

race name:

2024 U.S. presidential election

decided in the:

electoral-college

they said:

Kamala Harris

days before the vote when called:

difficulty:

the winner's party:

Republican

the naive guess:

the party holding the seat keeps it

Election Day:

2024-11-05

the result is:

certified

the party they named:

Democratic

Think this grade is wrong?

Kristol said he was slightly optimistic heading into the final week, arguing the swing states were essentially even and any late break should favor Harris, and he stated outright that he thinks she will win the presidency.Oct 28, 2024

“And I see no reason why the late break shouldn't be even tiny bit to Harris... I think she could well win. I actually do think she's gonna win.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
7
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this grade is wrong?