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David Frum

Writes at The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily)

Is David Frum accurate? Across 3 graded calls in 1 article, David Frum scores 86% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 37, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

86%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

Graded calls

across 1 article.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 3

Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid.3 graded calls · Nov 5, 2024
- “People will be able to vote against Carrie Lake and for Trump because they don't wanna be represented by a fraudster and lunatic”
  Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
  How this was scored
  right:
  yes
  race:
  2024-senate-az
  election year:
  2024
  skill:
  100
  topic:
  elections
  held going in by:
  Independent
  result from:
  wikipedia-2024-senate
  who won:
  Ruben Gallego
  accuracy:
  100
  baseline:

We grade claims about outcomes, never claims about people. If something here is wrong — a misattributed quote, a claim we misread, a grade you disagree with — tell us and we will look at it.

race name:

2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona

decided in the:

general

they said:

Ruben Gallego

days before the vote when called:

difficulty:

the winner's party:

Democratic

the naive guess:

the party holding the seat keeps it

Election Day:

2024-11-05

the result is:

certified

the party they named:

Democratic

Think this grade is wrong?

“I think there's going to be an unpleasant surprise for blue Americans from Arizona ... People will be able to vote against Carrie Lake and for Trump”

Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill

How this was scored

right:: yes
race:: 2024-president-az
election year:: 2024
skill:: 100
topic:: elections
held going in by:: Democratic
result from:: fec-2024-president
who won:: Donald Trump
accuracy:: 100
baseline:: 0
race name:: 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:: general
they said:: Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:: 0
difficulty:: 1
the winner's party:: Republican
the naive guess:: the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:: 2024-11-05
the result is:: certified
the party they named:: Republican

Think this grade is wrong?

“He's gonna get about 47% tonight.”

Close · 72Scored 72a naive guess scored 98-26 skill

How this was scored

race:: 2024-president
election year:: 2024
skill:: -26
topic:: elections
what happened:: 49.8
in their words:: about 47%
result from:: fec-2024-president
who won:: Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:: 10
what they counted:: vote_share
whose number:: Donald Trump
accuracy:: 72
baseline:: 98
race name:: 2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:: electoral-college
they said:: 47
days before the vote when called:: 0
difficulty:: 1
they won:: yes
the naive guess:: the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:: 2024-11-05
the certified margin:: 86
their party:: Republican
the naive guess said:: 50

Think this grade is wrong?