David Frum· Nov 5, 2024

Frum predicted Trump would take about 47 percent of the national vote and again be rejected by a majority, and that Arizona would deliver a bad surprise for Democrats with voters backing Trump while rejecting Kari Lake's Senate bid.

“He's gonna get about 47% tonight.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Bulwark Podcast (feed title: The Bulwark Daily) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 90.7 out of 100, against 32.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

47They said

49.8What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“He's gonna get about 47% tonight.”
Close · 72Scored 72a naive guess scored 98-26 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
-26
topic:
elections
what happened:
49.8
in their words:
about 47%
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
vote_share
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
72
baseline:
98
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
47
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
86
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I think there's going to be an unpleasant surprise for blue Americans from Arizona ... People will be able to vote against Carrie Lake and for Trump”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“People will be able to vote against Carrie Lake and for Trump because they don't wanna be represented by a fraudster and lunatic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ruben Gallego
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ruben Gallego
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.