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Writes at Newt's World
Across 5 graded calls in 1 article, Doug Sosnik scores 87.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 77.25, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 5 calls · one square per call
4hits80% of graded
1misses20%
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
5 graded calls in 1 article, newest first.
“If he went into Nebraska, too, which is outside of Omaha, he would kill the Republican candidate. You're going to lose it anyway.”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Doug Sosnik isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
“So I think we're going to have a very good year as Democrats. They will take the House back.”
“And you start with, can we as Democrats hold our seats that we have right now? And I think Georgia has been pretty much put away.”
“I think given the fact that Texas is basically something that Democrats should try, but we can't win.”
“I think North Carolina is pretty much the Democratic column.”