Doug SosnikOct 9, 2026
Sosnik predicted a strong Democratic midterm in which Democrats win back the House, called the Senate a coin flip, said North Carolina is essentially in the Democratic column and Georgia's Democratic seat is effectively secured, and argued Democrats cannot win Texas.
Said on air or in an interview · Newt's WorldHear the original
4 of 5calls landed4 hits · 1 miss · all settled
80Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
20A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
4Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Doug Sosnik said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSo I think we're going to have a very good year as Democrats. They will take the House back.
- Where it was said
- Newt's World
- The episode
- Episode 1050: The Midterms, 27 Days Out — McLaughlin and Sosnik on Who Will Control Congress
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 9
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2“If he went into Nebraska, too, which is outside of Omaha, he would kill the Republican candidate. You're going to lose it anyway.”
- 2Control of Congress“So I think we're going to have a very good year as Democrats. They will take the House back.”
- 3Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia“And you start with, can we as Democrats hold our seats that we have right now? And I think Georgia has been pretty much put away.”
- 4Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas“I think given the fact that Texas is basically something that Democrats should try, but we can't win.”
- 5Democratic to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina“I think North Carolina is pretty much the Democratic column.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 21 | Race Winners | Denise Powell won | 100 | 0 | +103 | |
| “So I think we're going to have a very good year as Democrats.…”2 | Control of Congress | — | 100 | 0 | +103 | |
| Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia3 | Race Winners | Jon Ossoff won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas4 | Race Winners | James Talarico won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Democratic to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina5 | Race Winners | Roy Cooper won | 100 | 0 | +103 | |
| 5 calls · 4 hits · 1 miss · all settled | 80 | 20 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 5 have settled, averaging 80 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2
What happenedDenise Powell woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.03difficulty=+103skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-house-ne-02
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 103
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Denise Powell
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Denise Powell
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
“So I think we're going to have a very good year as Democrats. They will take the House back.”
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.03difficulty=+103skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 103
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
- chamber:
- 2026-house
- who controls it:
- Democratic
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Democratic
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- who controlled it before:
- Republican
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
What happenedJon Ossoff woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-ga
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Jon Ossoff
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jon Ossoff
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
What happenedJames Talarico woncalled Ken Paxton0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.03difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- James Talarico
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ken Paxton
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Democratic to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
What happenedRoy Cooper woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.03difficulty=+103skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-nc
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 103
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- pretty much the Democratic column
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Roy Cooper
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Roy Cooper
- days before the vote when called:
- 25
- difficulty:
- 1.03
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
80naive 20
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.