Newt's World

So Trump could be looking at numbers in Florida between twelve and fifteen points

one hundred and twelve years of history suggests that Arizona is going to Trump too... there's the first time for everything, but I don't think it's this year

So I think that Nevada is pretty much baked at this point. I don't think that she has a chance to get back in the fight.

what needs to be done for Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me... it looks like we probably have enough to get Pennsylvania

I don't think Trump is going to win New York... I have a feeling that that numb is down in the low double digits, if not potentially inside ten

And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

and two are Trump leaners less than ten North Carolina and Texas

And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

My sense was around five percent.

And that pegged me for Georgia at a Trump margin of five point six percent.

because Michigan to me looks like a three to four point Trump state right now

So I think North Carolina looks like at least four points.

But with Minnesota, it's a very similar state in my analytics to Virginia. I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting

I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting

Cha also means we'll probably pick up the Senate seat.

We may pick up the Senate seat there based on the most recent Poland.

I think Bernie Mario may become the next Senator, just out of the underlying current that every year gets more Republican.

And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

I think there's a very real likelihood that he's going to end up winning the popular vote because he's not going to lose New York by the size of the last time.

Pennsylvania, I think we pull it out.

I feel very bullish on Michigan... He adds out Michigan... This is not going to be huge, but I think he ekes it out

I think Mike Rodgers... I think that he's going to pull this thing out.

I'm really bullish on Eric Covedy, not just winning, but I think he's going to be a great, great addition of the Senate.

I do believe for the first time since two thousand and four, we carry Nevada.