Jeremy Pargo Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take, page 2

Detroit Lions 35 — Arizona Cardinals 27
“J. Bergman Detroit Lions 35-27”
Close · 62Scored 61.9a naive guess scored 0+110.19 skill
How this was scored
score:
45-21
skill:
110.19
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
61.9
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
8
Closing line (Oct 11): Lions by 5.5, total 55.5 · this 35–27 calls a bigger Lions win (by 8) and more points (62).
Think this grade is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Indianapolis Colts 19
“J. Bergman Pittsburgh Steelers 21-19”
Close · 76Scored 76.19a naive guess scored 73.52+4.75 skill
How this was scored
score:
22-34
skill:
4.75
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
76.19
baseline:
73.52
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
12
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Oct 11): Steelers by 3, total 41.5 · this 21–19 calls a closer game (Steelers by 2) and fewer points (40).
Think this grade is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams 27 — Buffalo Bills 24
“J. Bergman Los Angeles Rams 27-24”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 43.52+11.53 skill
How this was scored
score:
37-34
skill:
11.53
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
43.52
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.28
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 27–24 calls a closer game (Rams by 3) and fewer points (51).
Think this grade is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Philadelphia Eagles 16
“J. Bergman Jacksonville Jaguars 23-16”
Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 96.54-15.03 skill
How this was scored
score:
17-19
skill:
−15.03
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
88.1
baseline:
96.54
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.55
predicted margin:
7
Closing line (Oct 11): Jaguars by 7.5, total 41.5 · this 23–16 calls a closer game (Jaguars by 7) and fewer points (39).
Think this grade is wrong?
Atlanta Falcons 31 — Baltimore Ravens 20
“J. Bergman Atlanta Falcons 31-20”
Close · 40Scored 40.48a naive guess scored 34.1+11.36 skill
How this was scored
score:
30-23
skill:
11.36
they picked:
ATL
season:
2026
accuracy:
40.48
baseline:
34.1
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
11
Closing line (Oct 11): Falcons by 3.5, total 44.5 · this 31–20 calls a bigger Falcons win (by 11) and more points (51).
Think this grade is wrong?
Washington Commanders 20 — New York Giants 18
“J. Bergman Washington Commanders 20-18”
Close · 70Scored 70.24a naive guess scored 72.91-4.75 skill
How this was scored
score:
27-27
skill:
−4.75
they picked:
WAS
season:
2026
accuracy:
70.24
baseline:
72.91
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
0
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Oct 11): Commanders by 3.5, total 41.5 · this 20–18 calls a closer game (Commanders by 2) and fewer points (38).
Think this grade is wrong?
Chicago Bears 26 — Green Bay Packers 24
“J. Bergman Chicago Bears 26-24”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-89 skill
How this was scored
score:
7-31
skill:
−89
they picked:
CHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
0
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
24
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Oct 11): Bears by 1.5, total 46.5 · this 26–24 calls a bigger Bears win (by 2) and more points (50).
Think this grade is wrong?
New Orleans Saints 17 — Minnesota Vikings 16
“J. Bergman New Orleans Saints 17-16”
Miss · 29Scored 28.57a naive guess scored 28.28+0.52 skill
How this was scored
score:
23-13
skill:
0.52
they picked:
NO
season:
2026
accuracy:
28.57
baseline:
28.28
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
10
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
1
Closing line (Oct 11): Vikings by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 17–16 calls a Saints win (by 1; the line gave the Saints 44%) and fewer points (33).
Think this grade is wrong?
New England Patriots 23 — Las Vegas Raiders 20
“J. Bergman New England Patriots 23-20”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skill
How this was scored
score:
17-45
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
28
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 11): Patriots by 3.5, total 45.5 · this 23–20 calls a closer game (Patriots by 3) and fewer points (43).
Think this grade is wrong?
New York Jets 19 — Cleveland Browns 17
“J. Bergman New York Jets 19-17”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 90.19+4.75 skill
How this was scored
score:
12-17
skill:
4.75
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
90.19
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Oct 11): Jets by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 19–17 calls a closer game (Jets by 2) and fewer points (36).
Think this grade is wrong?
Denver Broncos 17 — Los Angeles Chargers 13
“J. Bergman Denver Broncos 17-13”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 36.48+104.59 skill
How this was scored
score:
23-17
skill:
104.59
they picked:
DEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
36.48
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Oct 11): Broncos by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 17–13 calls a bigger Broncos win (by 4) and fewer points (30).
Think this grade is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks 17 — San Francisco 49ers 13
“J. Bergman Seattle Seahawks 17-13”
Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 43.62+7.12 skill
How this was scored
score:
32-29
skill:
7.12
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
43.62
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 17–13 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 4) and fewer points (30).
Think this grade is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 24 — Miami Dolphins 13
“J. Bergman Cincinnati Bengals 24-13”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 35.42+97.99 skill
How this was scored
score:
31-24
skill:
97.99
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
35.42
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
11
Closing line (Oct 11): Bengals by 7, total 44.5 · this 24–13 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 11) and fewer points (37).
Think this grade is wrong?
Houston Texans 20 — Tennessee Titans 9
“J. Bergman Houston Texans 20-9”
Close · 71Scored 71.43a naive guess scored 0+127.14 skill
How this was scored
score:
26-3
skill:
127.14
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
71.43
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
23
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
11
Closing line (Oct 11): Texans by 6.5, total 37.5 · this 20–9 calls a bigger Texans win (by 11) and fewer points (29).
Think this grade is wrong?

Oct 4, 2026

Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including an upset of the Colts by Washington in London and a Buccaneers win over the Packers.Score Predictions · 16 calls

6 hits · 6 close calls · 4 misses · 6 of 16 graded calls landed

Show the 16 graded calls

Detroit Lions 41 — Carolina Panthers 35
“Jeremy Bergman: Detroit Lions 41-35”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 88.1-69.71 skill
How this was scored
score:
26-32
skill:
−69.71
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
88.1
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
6
Closing line (Oct 4): Lions by 4.5, total 52.5 · this 41–35 calls a bigger Lions win (by 6) and more points (76).
Think this grade is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks 28 — Los Angeles Chargers 19
“Jeremy Bergman: Seattle Seahawks 28-19”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 85.71+17.43 skill
How this was scored
score:
23-30
skill:
17.43
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
85.71
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
9
Closing line (Oct 4): Seahawks by 7, total 42.5 · this 28–19 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 9) and more points (47).
Think this grade is wrong?
New York Jets 20 — Chicago Bears 18
“Jeremy Bergman: New York Jets 20-18”
Miss · 29Scored 28.57a naive guess scored 76.19-87.14 skill
How this was scored
score:
12-23
skill:
−87.14
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2026
accuracy:
28.57
baseline:
76.19
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
11
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Oct 4): Bears by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 20–18 calls a Jets win (by 2; the line gave the Jets 37%) and fewer points (38).
Think this grade is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Cincinnati Bengals 20
“Jeremy Bergman: Jacksonville Jaguars 23-20”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 40.48+100.21 skill
How this was scored
score:
22-17
skill:
100.21
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
95.24
baseline:
40.48
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 4): Bengals by 2.5, total 51.5 · this 23–20 calls a Jaguars win (by 3; the line gave the Jaguars 43%) and fewer points (43).
Think this grade is wrong?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 — Green Bay Packers 16
“Jeremy Bergman: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-16”
Close · 45Scored 45.24a naive guess scored 45.24+0 skill
How this was scored
score:
17-14
skill:
0
they picked:
TB
season:
2026
accuracy:
45.24
baseline:
45.24
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
1
Closing line (Oct 4): Packers by 3, total 38.5 · this 17–16 calls a Buccaneers win (by 1; the line gave the Buccaneers 42%) and fewer points (33).
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs 28 — Las Vegas Raiders 21
“Jeremy Bergman: Kansas City Chiefs 28-21”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 45.24+82.79 skill
How this was scored
score:
30-27
skill:
82.79
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
45.24
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
7
Closing line (Oct 4): Chiefs by 4.5, total 47.5 · this 28–21 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 7) and more points (49).
Think this grade is wrong?
Atlanta Falcons 22 — New Orleans Saints 19
“Jeremy Bergman: Atlanta Falcons 22-19”
Close · 57Scored 57.14a naive guess scored 1.56+101.71 skill
How this was scored
score:
45-24
skill:
101.71
they picked:
ATL
season:
2026
accuracy:
57.14
baseline:
1.56
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
21
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
0.66
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 5): Saints by 1.5, total 47.5 · this 22–19 calls a Falcons win (by 3; the line gave the Falcons 48%) and fewer points (41).
Think this grade is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys 24 — Houston Texans 20
“Jeremy Bergman: Dallas Cowboys 24-20”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 42.86+104.57 skill
How this was scored
score:
34-30
skill:
104.57
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
42.86
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Oct 4): Texans by 3, total 48.5 · this 24–20 calls a Cowboys win (by 4; the line gave the Cowboys 42%) and fewer points (44).
Think this grade is wrong?
Arizona Cardinals 23 — New York Giants 17
“Jeremy Bergman: Arizona Cardinals 23-17”
Miss · 36Scored 35.71a naive guess scored 73.81-69.71 skill
How this was scored
score:
24-36
skill:
−69.71
they picked:
ARI
season:
2026
accuracy:
35.71
baseline:
73.81
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
12
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
6
Closing line (Oct 4): Cardinals by 2.5, total 44.5 · this 23–17 calls a bigger Cardinals win (by 6) and fewer points (40).
Think this grade is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens 24 — Tennessee Titans 10
“Jeremy Bergman: Baltimore Ravens 24-10”
Hit · 81Scored 80.95a naive guess scored 88.1-13.07 skill
How this was scored
score:
18-24
skill:
−13.07
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
80.95
baseline:
88.1
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
14
Closing line (Oct 4): Ravens by 11.5, total 42.5 · this 24–10 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 14) and fewer points (34).
Think this grade is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings 24 — Miami Dolphins 7
“Jeremy Bergman: Minnesota Vikings 24-7”
Close · 71Scored 71.43a naive guess scored 90.48-34.86 skill
How this was scored
score:
10-15
skill:
−34.86
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
71.43
baseline:
90.48
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
17
Closing line (Oct 4): Vikings by 10, total 38.5 · this 24–7 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 17) and fewer points (31).
Think this grade is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams 33 — Philadelphia Eagles 26
“Jeremy Bergman: Los Angeles Rams 33-26”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 42.86+91.5 skill
How this was scored
score:
24-20
skill:
91.5
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
42.86
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
7
Closing line (Oct 4): Rams by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 33–26 calls a bigger Rams win (by 7) and more points (59).
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills 24 — New England Patriots 21
“Jeremy Bergman: Buffalo Bills 24-21”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 45.24+8.71 skill
How this was scored
score:
29-26
skill:
8.71
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
45.24
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 4): Bills by 7, total 49.5 · this 24–21 calls a closer game (Bills by 3) and fewer points (45).
Think this grade is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 — Cleveland Browns 16
“Jeremy Bergman: Pittsburgh Steelers 17-16”
Close · 52Scored 52.38a naive guess scored 51.13+2.29 skill
How this was scored
score:
6-27
skill:
2.29
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
52.38
baseline:
51.13
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
21
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
1
Think this grade is wrong?
Denver Broncos 16 — San Francisco 49ers 13
“Jeremy Bergman: Denver Broncos 16-13”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 78.57-82.79 skill
How this was scored
score:
14-24
skill:
−82.79
they picked:
DEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
33.33
baseline:
78.57
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
10
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 4): 49ers by 3, total 48.5 · this 16–13 calls a Broncos win (by 3; the line gave the Broncos 40%) and fewer points (29).
Think this grade is wrong?
Washington Commanders 24 — Indianapolis Colts 20
“Jeremy Bergman: Washington Commanders 24-20”
Miss · 19Scored 19.05a naive guess scored 10.86+14.99 skill
How this was scored
score:
30-13
skill:
14.99
they picked:
WAS
season:
2026
accuracy:
19.05
baseline:
10.86
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
17
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
0.56
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Oct 4): Colts by 4.5, total 46.5 · this 24–20 calls a Commanders win (by 4; the line gave the Commanders about 1 in 3 (33%)) and fewer points (44).
Think this grade is wrong?

Jeremy Pargo

Every graded call, continued · page 2