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Writes at The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)
Across 15 graded calls in 2 articles, Justin Penik scores 32.46% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -27.74, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are NFL experts overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 16 calls · one square per call
3hits20% of graded
1Close7%
11misses73%
1
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
15 graded calls in 2 articles, newest first. Every take from Justin Penik, including the ones still waiting →
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
The same 87, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Justin Penik isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
Cam Robinson to move to Chicago Bears
“So how about Cam Robinson Chicago Bear left tackle?”
Sam Darnold to move to Pittsburgh Steelers
“Sam Donald is gonna go to the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think it just makes sense.”
Charvarius Ward to move to Washington Commanders
“So how about Javarious Ward going to the commanders. They need corners”
Zack Baun to move to Philadelphia Eagles
“The Philadelphia Eagles cannot let Zach Bond leave ... bring back Zach Bawn, pay him a little bit of money.”
Cam Robinson to be 1st on the depth chart
“Cam Robinson, you could be left tackle ... So how about Cam Robinson Chicago Bear left tackle?”
Aaron Jones to move to Minnesota Vikings
“I really hope the Minnesota Vikings bring back Aaron Jones ... I'll do a layup for my last pick.”
Jamien Sherwood to move to Washington Commanders
“Jamie and sure would. I think it's going to go to the Washington Commanders and fill that void ... that Bobby Wagner is going to leave.”
Darius Slayton to move to Los Angeles Chargers
“Darius Slayton to the Chargers. I think it just makes total sense.”
“automatically we're putting Mahomes, Allen and Lamar ahead of anybody in the NFC... I have Alan and Lamar, but it's very close, and I hate that. So you have you have that flipped.”
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
“But the Chiefs, I think, are going to control the game because that's what they do.”
Closing line (Jan 18): Chiefs by 9.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (81%).
Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens
“I'm rooting for the Ravens, but I think I'm picking the Bills eight and oh at home.”
Closing line (Jan 19): Ravens by 1.5 · a toss-up, Ravens 52%, Bills 48%.
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“Lamar Jackson, I think is the m v P.”
“So you just went through my one through four. Yeah, Stafford, goff Daniels Hurts.”
Detroit Lions to beat Commanders
“this may just come down to Jimmy's and Joe's I think the Lions players are just flat out better offensively and defensively than the Commanders”
Closing line (Jan 18): Lions by 8.5 · favorite pick, Lions about 4 in 5 (80%).
Detroit Lions to beat Eagles
“If it's Lions Eagles, knowing what you currently know... I think the Lions in Detroit respectfully destroy the Eagles.”