Justin Penik· Jan 15, 2025
Pennock ranks the eight remaining playoff quarterbacks by conference (Mahomes over Allen over Lamar in the AFC; Stafford, Goff, Daniels, Hurts in the NFC), names Lamar Jackson as MVP, and picks the Chiefs, Lions and Bills to win their divisional games — plus the Lions to beat the Eagles if they meet.
“I'm rooting for the Ravens, but I think I'm picking the Bills.”
said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
7 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 2 top player lists and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 37.6 out of 100, against 46 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsJan 15, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Eagles
“If it's Lions Eagles, knowing what you currently know... I think the Lions in Detroit respectfully destroy the Eagles.”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 21.88+11.45 skillHow this was scored
- note:
- these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
- skill:
- 11.45
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- ceiling:
- 66.67
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 21.88
- opponent:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- 14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 7 won a game there
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- right opponent:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- picked won aplayoff game:
- no
- picked reached the playoffs:
- yes
- opponent reached the playoffs:
- yes
- Game Outcome PicksKansas City ChiefsJan 15, 2025
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
“But the Chiefs, I think, are going to control the game because that's what they do.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 14-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 15, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens
“I'm rooting for the Ravens, but I think I'm picking the Bills eight and oh at home.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 25-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 15, 2025
“automatically we're putting Mahomes, Allen and Lamar ahead of anybody in the NFC... I have Alan and Lamar, but it's very close, and I hate that. So you have you have that flipped.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -50
- placed:
- 2
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 3
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 2: 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Top Player ListsJan 15, 2025
“So you just went through my one through four. Yeah, Stafford, goff Daniels Hurts.”
Miss · 30Scored 30a naive guess scored 50-20 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- -20
- placed:
- 4
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 4
- accuracy:
- 30
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 4: 30
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore RavensJan 15, 2025
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“Lamar Jackson, I think is the m v P.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsJan 15, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Commanders
“this may just come down to Jimmy's and Joe's I think the Lions players are just flat out better offensively and defensively than the Commanders”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 45-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Philadelphia EaglesMiss · 0Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.