Justin PenikJan 15, 2025
Pennock ranks the eight remaining playoff quarterbacks by conference (Mahomes over Allen over Lamar in the AFC; Stafford, Goff, Daniels, Hurts in the NFC), names Lamar Jackson as MVP, and picks the Chiefs, Lions and Bills to win their divisional games — plus the Lions to beat the Eagles if they meet.
Said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Justin Penik said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI'm rooting for the Ravens, but I think I'm picking the Bills.
- Where it was said
- The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Ranking the Playoff QBs (with Justin Penik)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 15, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Detroit Lions to beat Eagles“If it's Lions Eagles, knowing what you currently know... I think the Lions in Detroit respectfully destroy the Eagles.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans“But the Chiefs, I think, are going to control the game because that's what they do.”
- 3Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens“I'm rooting for the Ravens, but I think I'm picking the Bills eight and oh at home.”
- 4Top Player Lists“automatically we're putting Mahomes, Allen and Lamar ahead of anybody in the NFC... I have Alan and Lamar, but it's very close, and I hate that. So you have you have that flipped.”
- 5Top Player Lists“So you just went through my one through four. Yeah, Stafford, goff Daniels Hurts.”
- 6Lamar Jackson to win MVP“Lamar Jackson, I think is the m v P.”
- 7Detroit Lions to beat Commanders“this may just come down to Jimmy's and Joe's I think the Lions players are just flat out better offensively and defensively than the Commanders”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions to beat Eagles1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 33.33 | 21.88 | +11.45 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens3 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| “automatically we're putting Mahomes, Allen and Lamar ahead of…”4 | Top Player Lists | — | 0 | 50 | −50 | |
| “So you just went through my one through four. Yeah, Stafford,…”5 | Top Player Lists | — | 30 | 50 | −20 | |
| Lamar Jackson to win MVP6 | Award Picks | Josh Allen won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Detroit Lions to beat Commanders7 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 calls · 2 hits · 5 misses · all settled | 37.6 | 46 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive7 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 2 top player lists and 1 award pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 37.6 out of 100, against 46 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Eagles
VerdictMiss33.33Miss · naive 21.8833.33this call−21.88a naive guess=11.45better than naive×1difficulty=+11.45skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- note:
- these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
- skill:
- 11.45
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- ceiling:
- 66.67
- accuracy:
- 33.33
- baseline:
- 21.88
- opponent:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- 14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 7 won a game there
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- right opponent:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- picked won aplayoff game:
- no
- picked reached the playoffs:
- yes
- opponent reached the playoffs:
- yes
2Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Texans
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 18): Chiefs by 9.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (81%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 14-23
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Ravens
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 19): Ravens by 1.5 · a toss-up, Ravens 52%, Bills 48%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- BUF
- score:
- 25-27
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- BUF
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“automatically we're putting Mahomes, Allen and Lamar ahead of anybody in the NFC... I have Alan and Lamar, but it's very close, and I hate that. So you have you have that flipped.”
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 500this call−50a naive guess=−50worse than naive×1difficulty=−50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- −50
- placed:
- 2
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 3
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 2: 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
“So you just went through my one through four. Yeah, Stafford, goff Daniels Hurts.”
VerdictMiss30Miss · naive 5030this call−50a naive guess=−20worse than naive×1difficulty=−20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- −20
- placed:
- 4
- season:
- 2024
- players:
- 4
- accuracy:
- 30
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- QB 4: 30
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 0
6Award PicksLamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
What happenedJosh Allen woncalled Lamar Jackson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
7Game Outcome PicksDetroit Lions
Detroit Lions to beat Commanders
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 18): Lions by 8.5 · favorite pick, Lions about 4 in 5 (80%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 45-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 7 settled calls, each counted once
37.6naive 46
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.