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Writes at Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Across 1 graded call in 1 article, Keith Rabois scores 89% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 89.86, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 1 calls · one square per call
1hits100% of graded
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
1 graded calls in 1 article, newest first.
“The American investor Keith Erboy, He's like, you're an idiot. Trump's gonna win Florida by ... at least eight points, if not ten or twelve.”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Keith Rabois isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.