Keith RaboisOct 9, 2024
In a Twitter exchange recounted on the show, the investor insisted Trump would carry Florida by a wide margin — at least eight points and possibly ten or twelve.
Said on air or in an interview · Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria KonnikovaHear the original
What Keith Rabois said
Trump's gonna win Florida by at least eight points, if not ten or twelve.
- Where it was said
- Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
- The episode
- The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidOct 9, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
How the call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveOne checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 89 out of 100, against 2.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
“The American investor Keith Erboy, He's like, you're an idiot. Trump's gonna win Florida by ... at least eight points, if not ten or twelve.”
What happenedDonald Trump won89Hit · naive 2.689this call−2.6a naive guess=86.4better than naive×1.04difficulty=+89.86skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president-fl
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 89.86
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 13.1
- in their words:
- 8-12
- read as:
- as written
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin in points
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 89
- baseline:
- 2.6
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
- decided in the:
- general
- days before the vote when called:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1.04
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 13.1
- their party:
- Republican
- their range:
- 8 to 12
- the naive guess said:
- 3.36
The race in this take
every call on eachMore race margins
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Tom Bevan · Race Margins · Hit 81
Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.Ben Shapiro · Race Margins · Miss 6
Ahead of the midterm elections, Shapiro predicted Republican wins in several marquee races: Marco Rubio beating Val Demings in Florida's Senate race, Brian Kemp defeating Stacey Abrams in Georgia, Ron DeSantis beating Charlie Crist by roughly 10 points, and Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship.Steve Deace · Race Margins · Miss 36
Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. They also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big.Jason Johnson · Race Margins · Miss 36
Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as their biggest upsets. They also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record.