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Writes at Decision Desk HQ Podcast
Across 2 graded calls in 1 article, Maddisen Murrell scores 100% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 103, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 2 calls · one square per call
2hits100% of graded
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
2 graded calls in 1 article, newest first.
“we estimate currently that the odds for Democrats taking these, house is at 76%”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Maddisen Murrell isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
“For the senate, we are... Have increasingly lean Democrat... And we're now at 57%... They are at a 58% chance of winning the senate.”