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Maddisen MurrellOct 8, 2026

Presenting DDHQ's model, Morell said Democrats have a 76% chance of winning the House and a 57-58% chance of winning the Senate, with the forecast having shifted toward Democrats in recent weeks.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Decision Desk HQ PodcastHear the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Maddisen Murrell said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Democrats are at 76% chance of winning, the house. They are at a 58% chance of winning the senate.
Maddisen Murrell, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Decision Desk HQ Podcast
The episode
Forecast Update: Democrats have more than 50% chance of flipping both Senate & House
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 8
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Control of Congress“we estimate currently that the odds for Democrats taking these, house is at 76%”
  2. 2Control of Congress“For the senate, we are... Have increasingly lean Democrat... And we're now at 57%... They are at a 58% chance of winning the senate.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“we estimate currently that the odds for Democrats taking these,…”1Control of Congress—1000+103
“For the senate, we are... Have increasingly lean Democrat...…”2Control of Congress—1000+103
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled1000

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Control of Congress

    “we estimate currently that the odds for Democrats taking these, house is at 76%”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.03difficulty+103skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    103
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    76% chance
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    25
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Control of Congress

    “For the senate, we are... Have increasingly lean Democrat... And we're now at 57%... They are at a 58% chance of winning the senate.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.03difficulty+103skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    103
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    a 58% chance of winning the senate
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-senate
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    25
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 0
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