Loading…
Loading…
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
hits
misses
Takes in each band
Everyone writing under this banner, pooled into the numbers above. Counted by article, with a paginated series counting once — the same rule used for an individual, from the published methodology.
1–16 of 16
14 / 16
graded
2 still pending
we estimate currently that the odds for Democrats taking these, house is at 76%
For the senate, we are... Have increasingly lean Democrat... And we're now at 57%... They are at a 58% chance of winning the senate.
I I still think Paxon, excuse me, Abbott has a better chance. Okay. So 69% chance of winning. So slightly better for Republicans than Florida at least right now.
So Byron Donalds has, an edge in Florida, but not a huge one... at the end of the day, this is one where Republicans have the upper hand.
the senate race where Republican Ashley Moody is basically a three and four favorite to to win, this... That's a special election for Marco Rubio's seat
Generally speaking, Arkansas is way too red of a state to imagine it it flipping. This is where fundamentals are doing a lot of work... look, Arkansas 96%
It's in the same range as the Kansas race, basically. They're very similar now where they lean Republican. They're most likely gonna go Republican.
In our forecast, it is now, essentially, we categorize it as lean Republican... with Roger Marshall, the incumbent there having a a 67% chance of winning, so two and three
Tallarico's narrowly favored... if Tallerico wins 50 out of every... Sorry. 58 out of every a 100 simulations that we run... the average across all of our forecast runs is that Tallerico wins very narrowly
LePage probably has the edge here... I think the prevailing attitude up here certainly is a LePage win, albeit narrow in this environment... LePage pretty clearly favored.
And then Hannah Pingree, is basically the runaway favorite right now in the governor's race.
The governor's race in Maine is is kind of likely democratic from from the looks of things
It's like a lean r race, I think, in our forecast right now.
And just to to put some numbers on that in our forecast, you know, right now, Brown is a is a very narrow favorite in our forecast.
right now in our forecast, decision to CHG forecast, it this race is in our toss-up column. Tallarico has a very small edge in terms of probability of victory, but broadly speaking, it's it's pretty close to fifty fifty, in terms of the the probability of winning.
as of right now, as we sit here on September 17, and I think in all likelihood through the election, we are using the 2022 map, the 06/02 map, that is likely to reelect Emmanuel Klieber.