Matt Continetti

Is Matt Continetti accurate?

Across 4 graded calls in 1 article, Matt Continetti scores 77.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 21.67, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.

How accurate are election pundits overall? →

77.5%

Accuracy

How often they were right.

21.67

MissedTakes Score

Versus a naive guess. 0 means no better.

4

Graded calls

across 1 article.

Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.

Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.

Graded calls · 4

Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.4 graded calls · Nov 8, 2022
- “I'd say 20 to 30 seats, maybe more, in the house”
  Close · 45Scored 45a naive guess scored 55-10 skill
  How this was scored
  election year:
  2022
  party:
  Republican
  seats after:
  222
  skill:
  −10
  topic:
  elections
  what happened:
  9
  in their words:
  20 to 30 seats, maybe more
  read as:
  as written
  result from:
  house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)

chamber:

2022-house

what they counted:

net seats

accuracy:

45

baseline:

55

days before the vote when called:

0

difficulty:

1

seats before:

213

the naive guess:

no change from the previous election

Election Day:

2022-11-08

their range:

20 to 30

the naive guess said:

0

Think this grade is wrong?

“which will include a reelected governor, Ron DeSantis of Florida”

Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill

How this was scored

right:: yes
race:: 2022-governor-fl
election year:: 2022
skill:: 0
topic:: elections
held going in by:: Republican
result from:: wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:: Ron DeSantis
accuracy:: 100
baseline:: 100
race name:: 2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:: general
they said:: Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:: 0
difficulty:: 1
the winner's party:: Republican
the naive guess:: the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:: 2022-11-08
the result is:: certified
the party they named:: Republican

Think this grade is wrong?

“and then, three to four pickups in the senate. It's gonna be a good night for Republicans”

Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 80-60 skill

How this was scored

election year:: 2022
party:: Republican
seats after:: 49
skill:: −60
topic:: elections
what happened:: −1
in their words:: three to four pickups in the senate
read as:: as written
result from:: senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:: 2022-senate
what they counted:: net seats
accuracy:: 20
baseline:: 80
days before the vote when called:: 0
difficulty:: 1
seats before:: 50
the naive guess:: no change from the previous election
Election Day:: 2022-11-08
their range:: 3 to 4
the naive guess said:: 0

Think this grade is wrong?

“it's possible that the Republicans will have been, called, the house victors, you know, by 10:00”

Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill

How this was scored

right:: yes
election year:: 2022
skill:: 100
topic:: elections
result from:: house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:: 2022-house
who controls it:: Republican
accuracy:: 100
baseline:: 0
they said:: Republican
days before the vote when called:: 0
difficulty:: 1
the naive guess:: the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:: 2022-11-08
who controlled it before:: Democratic

Think this grade is wrong?