Matt Continetti· Nov 8, 2022

Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.

“I'd say 20 to 30 seats, maybe more, in the house, and then, three to four pickups in the senate.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 seat counts, 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 4 have settled, averaging 66.3 out of 100, against 58.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“I'd say 20 to 30 seats, maybe more, in the house”
Close · 45Scored 45a naive guess scored 55-10 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−10
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
in their words:
20 to 30 seats, maybe more
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
45
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
20 to 30
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“which will include a reelected governor, Ron DeSantis of Florida”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 8, 2022
“and then, three to four pickups in the senate. It's gonna be a good night for Republicans”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 80-60 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−60
topic:
elections
what happened:
−1
in their words:
three to four pickups in the senate
read as:
as written
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
20
baseline:
80
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
3 to 4
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 8, 2022
“it's possible that the Republicans will have been, called, the house victors, you know, by 10:00”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.