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Writes at Move the Sticks (podcast)
Across 3 graded calls in 3 articles, Mike Garafolo scores 66.19% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 6.16, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are NFL experts overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 10 calls · one square per call
2hits67% of graded
1misses33%
7waitingnot graded yet
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
3 graded calls in 3 articles, newest first. Every take from Mike Garafolo, including the ones still waiting →
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
The same 87, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Mike Garafolo isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
Denver Broncos to beat Bills
“So shock the world number one seed, Broncos go. I don't know that it's gonna happen.”
Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.
“So I got the Chargers at six... The Pittsburgh Steelers are number five... they are playing in the Houston Texans... I'm going to put the number one rushing defense here [Jaguars]... I'm gonna put the Patriots here... So I put them at number two, number one. Let's go Buffalo”
“I'm going the Seahawks here at number five... I'm going to put Indianapolis right here at number four... I'm gonna put the Detroit Lions here at number three... Speaking of the Chiefs, Rushie Rice is coming back... And number one... I'm going with the Tampa Bay back at number one”