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Mike GarafoloOct 15, 2025

Put the Buccaneers at No. 1 in their top five, followed by the Chiefs, Lions, Colts and Seahawks, and explicitly left the Packers out.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

10Miss · out of 100
Power RankingsThe callsettled
40A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
10This callout of 100
−50.1Skillafter difficulty

What Mike Garafolo said

I'm going with the Tampa Bay back at number one here.
Mike Garafolo’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode
GMFB Wednesday Hour 1: Rank the Top 5, Sterling Shepard, and Biggest Surprises!
The original
Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidOct 15, 2025
  2. GradedAug 7, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 10 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Power Rankings

    “I'm going the Seahawks here at number five... I'm going to put Indianapolis right here at number four... I'm gonna put the Detroit Lions here at number three... Speaking of the Chiefs, Rushie Rice is coming back... And number one... I'm going with the Tampa Bay back at number one”

    VerdictMiss
    10Miss · naive 40
    10this call40a naive guess−30worse than naive1.67difficulty−50.1skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −50.1
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    10
    baseline:
    40
    difficulty:
    1.67
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    5
    weeks left when called:
    12
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