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Mike GarafoloJan 6, 2026

Ranked the six remaining AFC teams with Buffalo first, New England second and the Chargers last, citing the Bills' run game and Jacksonville's run defense.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

89Hit · out of 100
Power RankingsThe callsettled
20A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
88.57This callout of 100
+68.57Skillafter difficulty

What Mike Garafolo said

It's a little bit of a leap of faith... Let's go Buffalo.
Mike Garafolo’s words, quoted for attribution
Where it was said
Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode
GMFB Tuesday Hour 1: Ranking AFC Playoff Teams, Tony Dungy joins! Angry Runs
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJan 6
  2. GradedAug 5

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 88.6 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Power Rankings

    “So I got the Chargers at six... The Pittsburgh Steelers are number five... they are playing in the Houston Texans... I'm going to put the number one rushing defense here [Jaguars]... I'm gonna put the Patriots here... So I put them at number two, number one. Let's go Buffalo”

    VerdictHit
    88.57Hit · naive 20
    88.57this call20a naive guess68.57better than naive1difficulty+68.57skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    68.57
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    88.57
    baseline:
    20
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

More power rankings

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.