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Writes at The Dispatch Podcast
Across 5 graded calls in 2 articles, Mike Warren scores 75% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 51.25, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are election pundits overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 5 calls · one square per call
4hits80% of graded
1misses20%
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
5 graded calls in 2 articles, newest first.
“building the case that I don't agree with that a Democrat could win in South Carolina... I think Andrews is, like, kind of the perfect candidate for that type of voter, and I just don't think it'll be enough.”
The same 21, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Mike Warren isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
“And that's a seat that republicans are going to lose because Tom Tillis holds that seat and he's retiring.”
“Jon Ossoff is about to win reelection in Mhmm. Georgia thanks to the votes of a large number of of older black women.”
“There is a universe where there are universes where Republicans were taking the house, but it's more likely than not the Democrats win majority of the house.”
“and yet he's on his way to a massive victory picking up, you know, big amounts of votes... Josh Shapiro is on his way to winning big with those voters as well. He's got basically a non competitive Republican challenger”