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Mike WarrenOct 9, 2026

Warren said Democrats are more likely than not to win the House majority, that Josh Shapiro is headed for a lopsided reelection win in Pennsylvania, and that Jon Ossoff is about to win reelection in Georgia.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Dispatch PodcastHear the original

3 of 3calls landed3 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Mike Warren said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
There is a universe where there are universes where Republicans were taking the house, but it's more likely than not the Democrats win majority of the house.
Mike Warren, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Dispatch Podcast
The episode
What Midterm Polling May Be Getting Wrong
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 9
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10
  1. 1Jon Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia“Jon Ossoff is about to win reelection in Mhmm. Georgia thanks to the votes of a large number of of older black women.”
  2. 2Control of Congress“There is a universe where there are universes where Republicans were taking the house, but it's more likely than not the Democrats win majority of the house.”
  3. 3Josh Shapiro to win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election“and yet he's on his way to a massive victory picking up, you know, big amounts of votes... Josh Shapiro is on his way to winning big with those voters as well. He's got basically a non competitive Republican challenger”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Jon Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia1Race WinnersJon Ossoff won1001000
“There is a universe where there are universes where Republicans…”2Control of Congress—1000+103
Josh Shapiro to win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election3Race WinnersJosh Shapiro won1001000
3 calls · 3 hits · all settled10066.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Jon Ossoff to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia

    What happenedJon Ossoff woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.03difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-senate-ga
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Jon Ossoff
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Jon Ossoff
    days before the vote when called:
    24
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Control of Congress

    “There is a universe where there are universes where Republicans were taking the house, but it's more likely than not the Democrats win majority of the house.”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.03difficulty+103skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    103
    topic:
    elections
    in their words:
    more likely than not
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
    chamber:
    2026-house
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    they said:
    Democratic
    days before the vote when called:
    24
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    who controlled it before:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Race Winners

    Josh Shapiro to win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

    What happenedJosh Shapiro woncalled, not yet certified
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.03difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2026-governor-pa
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Josh Shapiro
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Josh Shapiro
    days before the vote when called:
    24
    difficulty:
    1.03
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 66.7

The races in this take

every call on each
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More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.