Mike WarrenOct 16, 2026
Warren said Republicans are going to lose the open North Carolina Senate seat, and that although the Democrat in South Carolina is a good fit for coastal Republican voters, it will not be enough for them to win that seat.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Dispatch PodcastHear the original
What Mike Warren said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromAnd that's a seat that republicans are going to lose because Tom Tillis holds that seat and he's retiring.
- Where it was said
- The Dispatch Podcast
- The episode
- A Blue Wave or an Anti-Incumbent Wave?
- The original
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- SaidOct 16
- Election DayNov 3
- GradedNov 10
- 1Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina“building the case that I don't agree with that a Democrat could win in South Carolina... I think Andrews is, like, kind of the perfect candidate for that type of voter, and I just don't think it'll be enough.”
- 2Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina“And that's a seat that republicans are going to lose because Tom Tillis holds that seat and he's retiring.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina1 | Race Winners | Annie Andrews won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina2 | Race Winners | Roy Cooper won | 100 | 0 | +102 | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled | 50 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Republican to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
What happenedAnnie Andrews woncalled Darline Graham0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.02difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2026-senate-sc
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Annie Andrews
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Darline Graham
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Republican
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
What happenedRoy Cooper woncalled, not yet certified100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.02difficulty=+102skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2026-senate-nc
- election year:
- 2026
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2026
- who won:
- Roy Cooper
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Roy Cooper
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2026-11-03
- the result is:
- called
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 0
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.