Tyler Sullivan Predictions: Record, Accuracy, Every Take, page 5

Atlanta Falcons 26 — Saints 24
“Falcons at Saints (Monday) Projected score : Falcons 26, Saints 24”
Close · 55Scored 54.76a naive guess scored 1.56+97.35 skill
How this was scored
score:
45-24
skill:
97.35
they picked:
ATL
season:
2026
accuracy:
54.76
baseline:
1.56
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
21
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
0.66
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Oct 5): Saints by 1.5, total 47.5 · this 26–24 calls a Falcons win (by 2; the line gave the Falcons 48%) and more points (50).
Think this grade is wrong?
Dallas Cowboys 27 — Texans 23
“Projected score : Cowboys 27, Texans 23”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 42.86+104.57 skill
How this was scored
score:
34-30
skill:
104.57
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
42.86
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Oct 4): Texans by 3, total 48.5 · this 27–23 calls a Cowboys win (by 4; the line gave the Cowboys 42%) and more points (50).
Think this grade is wrong?
Arizona Cardinals 27 — Giants 23
“Projected score : Cardinals 27, Giants 23”
Miss · 31Scored 30.95a naive guess scored 73.81-78.43 skill
How this was scored
score:
24-36
skill:
−78.43
they picked:
ARI
season:
2026
accuracy:
30.95
baseline:
73.81
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
12
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Oct 4): Cardinals by 2.5, total 44.5 · this 27–23 calls a bigger Cardinals win (by 4) and more points (50).
Think this grade is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams 24 — Eagles 20
“Projected score : Rams 24, Eagles 20”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 42.86+104.57 skill
How this was scored
score:
24-20
skill:
104.57
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
42.86
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Oct 4): Rams by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Rams win (by 4) and more points (44).
Think this grade is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens 33 — Titans 16
“Projected score : Ravens 33, Titans 16”
Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 88.1-26.14 skill
How this was scored
score:
18-24
skill:
−26.14
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
73.81
baseline:
88.1
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
17
Closing line (Oct 4): Ravens by 11.5, total 42.5 · this 33–16 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 17) and more points (49).
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills 30 — Patriots 20
“Projected score : Bills 30, Patriots 20”
Miss · 33Scored 33.33a naive guess scored 45.24-21.79 skill
How this was scored
score:
29-26
skill:
−21.79
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
33.33
baseline:
45.24
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
10
Closing line (Oct 4): Bills by 7, total 49.5 · this 30–20 calls a bigger Bills win (by 10) and more points (50).
Think this grade is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings 27 — Dolphins 10
“Projected score : Vikings 27, Dolphins 10”
Close · 71Scored 71.43a naive guess scored 90.48-34.86 skill
How this was scored
score:
10-15
skill:
−34.86
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
71.43
baseline:
90.48
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
17
Closing line (Oct 4): Vikings by 10, total 38.5 · this 27–10 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 17) and fewer points (37).
Think this grade is wrong?
Denver Broncos 23 — 49ers 21
“Projected score : Broncos 23, 49ers 21”
Miss · 31Scored 30.95a naive guess scored 78.57-87.14 skill
How this was scored
score:
14-24
skill:
−87.14
they picked:
DEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
30.95
baseline:
78.57
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
10
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Oct 4): 49ers by 3, total 48.5 · this 23–21 calls a Broncos win (by 2; the line gave the Broncos 40%) and fewer points (44).
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs 30 — Raiders 24
“Projected score : Chiefs 30, Raiders 24”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 45.24+87.14 skill
How this was scored
score:
30-27
skill:
87.14
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
45.24
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
6
Closing line (Oct 4): Chiefs by 4.5, total 47.5 · this 30–24 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 6) and more points (54).
Think this grade is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 24 — Jaguars 21
“Projected score : Bengals 24, Jaguars 21”
Close · 45Scored 45.24a naive guess scored 40.48+8.71 skill
How this was scored
score:
22-17
skill:
8.71
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
45.24
baseline:
40.48
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 4): Bengals by 2.5, total 51.5 · this 24–21 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 3) and fewer points (45).
Think this grade is wrong?
Indianapolis Colts 30 — Commanders 24
“Colts at Commanders (in London) Projected score : Colts 30, Commanders 24”
Close · 74Scored 73.81a naive guess scored 10.86+115.2 skill
How this was scored
score:
30-13
skill:
115.2
they picked:
IND
season:
2026
accuracy:
73.81
baseline:
10.86
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
17
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
0.56
predicted margin:
6
Closing line (Oct 4): Colts by 4.5, total 46.5 · this 30–24 calls a bigger Colts win (by 6) and more points (54).
Think this grade is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks 33 — Chargers 20
“Projected score : Seahawks 33, Chargers 20”
Hit · 86Scored 85.71a naive guess scored 85.71+0 skill
How this was scored
score:
23-30
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
85.71
baseline:
85.71
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
13
Closing line (Oct 4): Seahawks by 7, total 42.5 · this 33–20 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 13) and more points (53).
Think this grade is wrong?
Detroit Lions 30 — Panthers 27
“Projected score : Lions 30, Panthers 27”
Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 88.1-82.79 skill
How this was scored
score:
26-32
skill:
−82.79
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
42.86
baseline:
88.1
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 4): Lions by 4.5, total 52.5 · this 30–27 calls a closer game (Lions by 3) and more points (57).
Think this grade is wrong?
Chicago Bears 27 — Jets 24
“Projected score : Bears 27, Jets 24”
Hit · 81Scored 80.95a naive guess scored 76.19+8.71 skill
How this was scored
score:
12-23
skill:
8.71
they picked:
CHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
80.95
baseline:
76.19
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
11
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Oct 4): Bears by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 27–24 calls a closer game (Bears by 3) and more points (51).
Think this grade is wrong?
Green Bay Packers 27 — Buccaneers 20
“Projected score : Packers 27, Buccaneers 20”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 45.24+82.79 skill
How this was scored
score:
17-14
skill:
82.79
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
45.24
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
7
Closing line (Oct 4): Packers by 3, total 38.5 · this 27–20 calls a bigger Packers win (by 7) and more points (47).
Think this grade is wrong?
Pittsburgh Steelers 21 — Browns 17
“Steelers at Browns (Thursday) Projected score : Steelers 21, Browns 17”
Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 95.04-86.79 skill
How this was scored
score:
24-27
skill:
−86.79
they picked:
PIT
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
95.04
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
0.92
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Oct 1): Steelers by 2.5, total 38.5 · this 21–17 calls a bigger Steelers win (by 4) and fewer points (38).
Think this grade is wrong?

Sep 28, 2026

Sullivan argues the 0-3 Chargers are more likely to fall to 0-9 than recover playoff relevance, and they doubt the 0-3 Texans will make the postseason. They also float a possible franchise reset including firing the offensive coordinator and even trading Justin Herbert, and they tout Jets rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq and Colts WR Josh Downs as players to buy stock in.Game Outcome Picks · 7 calls

5 hits · 2 waiting · 5 of 5 graded calls landed

Show the 5 graded calls

Los Angeles Rams to beat Los Angeles Chargers
“a 0-9 record feels more plausible ... Week 8 at Los Angeles Rams”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
LAR
score:
9-24
skill:
0
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
LAR
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this grade is wrong?
Denver Broncos to beat Los Angeles Chargers
“a 0-9 record feels more plausible ... Week 5 vs. Denver Broncos”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skill
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
23-17
skill:
189
they picked:
DEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAC
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this grade is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks to beat Los Angeles Chargers
“a 0-9 record feels more plausible than them clawing back to playoff relevance ... Week 4 at Seattle Seahawks”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
23-30
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Closing line (Oct 4): Seahawks by 7 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 3 in 4 (74%).
Think this grade is wrong?
Houston Texans to beat Los Angeles Chargers
“a 0-9 record feels more plausible ... Week 9 vs. Houston Texans”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+189 skill
How this was scored
won:
HOU
score:
44-22
skill:
189
they picked:
HOU
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LAC
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Los Angeles Chargers
“a 0-9 record feels more plausible ... Week 6 at Kansas City Chiefs”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
won:
KC
score:
6-22
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this grade is wrong?

Sep 23, 2026

Sullivan projects final scores for every Week 3 game, including a Bills blowout of the reeling Chargers, a Chiefs rout in Miami, a Seahawks win over a Mariota-led Washington, and the Saints beating the Raiders in their home opener. They also expect Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart all to be sidelined in Week 3, with Marcus Mariota starting for Washington.Score Predictions · 20 calls

7 hits · 6 close calls · 3 misses · 4 waiting · 7 of 16 graded calls landed

Show the 16 graded calls

Los Angeles Rams 23 — Broncos 20
“Rams at Broncos Projected score : Rams 23, Broncos 20”
Close · 48Scored 47.62a naive guess scored 91.59-83.11 skill
How this was scored
score:
26-30
skill:
−83.11
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
91.59
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Sep 27): Broncos by 1.5, total 43.5 · this 23–20 calls a Rams win (by 3; the line gave the Rams 50%) and fewer points (43).
Think this grade is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings 23 — Buccaneers 21
“Vikings at Buccaneers Projected score : Vikings 23, Buccaneers 21”
Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 34.45+101.39 skill
How this was scored
score:
23-16
skill:
101.39
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
88.1
baseline:
34.45
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Sep 27): Vikings by 1.5, total 42.5 · this 23–21 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 2) and more points (44).
Think this grade is wrong?
Detroit Lions 33 — Jets 21
“Projected score : Lions 33, Jets 21”
Hit · 88Scored 88.1a naive guess scored 84.45+6.89 skill
How this was scored
score:
24-31
skill:
6.89
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
88.1
baseline:
84.45
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
12
Closing line (Sep 27): Lions by 7, total 49.5 · this 33–21 calls a bigger Lions win (by 12) and more points (54).
Think this grade is wrong?
New Orleans Saints 24 — Raiders 20
“Projected score : Saints 24, Raiders 20”
Close · 40Scored 40.48a naive guess scored 32.07+15.89 skill
How this was scored
score:
35-27
skill:
15.89
they picked:
NO
season:
2026
accuracy:
40.48
baseline:
32.07
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
4
Closing line (Sep 27): Saints by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Saints win (by 4) and more points (44).
Think this grade is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens 31 — Cowboys 29
“Ravens at Cowboys (in Brazil) Projected score : Ravens 31, Cowboys 29”
Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 43.97+101.39 skill
How this was scored
score:
34-31
skill:
101.39
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
97.62
baseline:
43.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Sep 27): Ravens by 3, total 53.5 · this 31–29 calls a closer game (Ravens by 2) and more points (60).
Think this grade is wrong?
Tennessee Titans 23 — Giants 20
“Titans at Giants Projected score : Titans 23, Giants 20”
Close · 45Scored 45.24a naive guess scored 89.21-83.11 skill
How this was scored
score:
7-12
skill:
−83.11
they picked:
TEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
45.24
baseline:
89.21
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Sep 27): Giants by 2.5, total 37.5 · this 23–20 calls a Titans win (by 3; the line gave the Titans 46%) and more points (43).
Think this grade is wrong?
Green Bay Packers 26 — Falcons 21
“Falcons at Packers (Thursday) Projected score : Packers 26, Falcons 21”
Miss · 12Scored 11.9a naive guess scored 0+22.5 skill
How this was scored
score:
35-14
skill:
22.5
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
11.9
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
21
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
−0.45
predicted margin:
5
Closing line (Sep 24): Packers by 4.5, total 43.5 · this 26–21 calls a bigger Packers win (by 5) and more points (47).
Think this grade is wrong?
Indianapolis Colts 26 — Texans 23
“Texans at Colts Projected score : Colts 26, Texans 23”
Hit · 98Scored 97.62a naive guess scored 96.35+2.39 skill
How this was scored
score:
17-19
skill:
2.39
they picked:
IND
season:
2026
accuracy:
97.62
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Sep 27): Texans by 1.5, total 41.5 · this 26–23 calls a Colts win (by 3; the line gave the Colts 47%) and more points (49).
Think this grade is wrong?
Philadelphia Eagles 26 — Bears 20
“Eagles at Bears (Monday) Projected score : Eagles 26, Bears 20”
Miss · 17Scored 16.67a naive guess scored 54.46-71.44 skill
How this was scored
score:
7-27
skill:
−71.44
they picked:
PHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
16.67
baseline:
54.46
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
20
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
6
Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 26–20 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 6) and more points (46).
Think this grade is wrong?
Buffalo Bills 31 — Chargers 20
“Projected score : Bills 31, Chargers 20”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 82.07+20.39 skill
How this was scored
score:
16-24
skill:
20.39
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
82.07
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
11
Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7, total 50.5 · this 31–20 calls a bigger Bills win (by 11) and more points (51).
Think this grade is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers 33 — Cardinals 23
“Cardinals at 49ers Projected score : 49ers 33, Cardinals 23”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 86.83+6.89 skill
How this was scored
score:
30-36
skill:
6.89
they picked:
SF
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
86.83
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
10
Closing line (Sep 27): 49ers by 7.5, total 48.5 · this 33–23 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 10) and more points (56).
Think this grade is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Steelers 20
“Bengals at Steelers Projected score : Bengals 27, Steelers 20”
Close · 40Scored 40.48a naive guess scored 93.97-101.11 skill
How this was scored
score:
27-30
skill:
−101.11
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
40.48
baseline:
93.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
7
Closing line (Sep 27): Bengals by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 27–20 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 7) and more points (47).
Think this grade is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks 27 — Commanders 17
“Projected score : Seahawks 27, Commanders 17”
Miss · 31Scored 30.95a naive guess scored 96.35-123.61 skill
How this was scored
score:
31-33
skill:
−123.61
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
30.95
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
10
Closing line (Sep 27): Seahawks by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 10) and more points (44).
Think this grade is wrong?
Carolina Panthers 24 — Browns 21
“Panthers at Browns Projected score : Panthers 24, Browns 21”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 93.97-83.11 skill
How this was scored
score:
18-21
skill:
−83.11
they picked:
CAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
93.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Closing line (Sep 27): Panthers by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 24–21 calls a bigger Panthers win (by 3) and more points (45).
Think this grade is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs 33 — Dolphins 16
“Projected score : Chiefs 33, Dolphins 16”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 17.78+141.89 skill
How this was scored
score:
24-10
skill:
141.89
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
17.78
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
14
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
17
Closing line (Sep 27): Chiefs by 10, total 45.5 · this 33–16 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 17) and more points (49).
Think this grade is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Patriots 21
“Patriots at Jaguars Projected score : Jaguars 23, Patriots 21”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 50+0 skill
How this was scored
score:
6-35
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
29
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
2
Closing line (Sep 27): Jaguars by 3, total 46.5 · this 23–21 calls a closer game (Jaguars by 2) and fewer points (44).
Think this grade is wrong?

Tyler Sullivan

Every graded call, continued · page 5