Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 23, 2026

Sullivan projects final scores for every Week 3 game, including a Bills blowout of the reeling Chargers, a Chiefs rout in Miami, a Seahawks win over a Mariota-led Washington, and the Saints beating the Raiders in their home opener. They also expect Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart all to be sidelined in Week 3, with Marcus Mariota starting for Washington.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

7 of 16calls landed7 hits · 6 close calls · 3 misses · 4 waiting

61.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 16 calls

65.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

16Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

Allen is on an MVP trajectory over his first two games, totaling nine touchdowns. He's a freight train, and it feels like the Chargers will be his next victim.

Tyler Sullivan, the lead quote

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: NFL Week 3 picks, odds: Josh Allen furthers Chargers free fall, Saints stay hot in home opener
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 23
PlayedSep 24–28
GradedSep 25–29

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting
Score Predictions	7	6	3	0
Availability Calls	0	0	0	3
Depth Chart Calls	0	0	0	1
All	7	6	3	4

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

20 checkable claims — 16 score predictions, 3 availability calls and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 23 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

16 of 20 have settled so far, averaging 61.3 out of 100, against 65.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Score Predictions7 hits · 6 close calls · 3 missesShow ▸

Philadelphia Eagles 26 — Bears 20
“Eagles at Bears (Monday) Projected score : Eagles 26, Bears 20”
Philadelphia Eagles
Bears 27–7called Eagles by 6 · lost by 20
16.67Miss
16.67 − 54.46 naive = −37.79 × 1.89 difficulty = −71.44 skill
Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 26–20 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 6) and more points (46).
How this was scored
score:
7-27
skill:
−71.44
they picked:
PHI
season:
2026
accuracy:
16.67
baseline:
54.46
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
20
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.88
predicted margin:
6
Think this is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs 33 — Dolphins 16
“Projected score : Chiefs 33, Dolphins 16”
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs 24–10called Chiefs by 17 · won by 14
92.86Hit
92.86 − 17.78 naive = 75.08 × 1.89 difficulty = +141.89 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Chiefs by 10, total 45.5 · this 33–16 calls a bigger Chiefs win (by 17) and more points (49).
How this was scored
score:
24-10
skill:
141.89
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
17.78
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
14
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
17
Think this is wrong?
Buffalo Bills 31 — Chargers 20
“Projected score : Bills 31, Chargers 20”
Buffalo Bills
Bills 24–16called Bills by 11 · won by 8
92.86Hit
92.86 − 82.07 naive = 10.79 × 1.89 difficulty = +20.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7, total 50.5 · this 31–20 calls a bigger Bills win (by 11) and more points (51).
How this was scored
score:
16-24
skill:
20.39
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
92.86
baseline:
82.07
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
11
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Rams 23 — Broncos 20
“Rams at Broncos Projected score : Rams 23, Broncos 20”
Los Angeles Rams
Broncos 30–26called Rams by 3 · lost by 4
47.62Close
47.62 − 91.59 naive = −43.97 × 1.89 difficulty = −83.11 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Broncos by 1.5, total 43.5 · this 23–20 calls a Rams win (by 3; the line gave the Rams 50%) and fewer points (43).
How this was scored
score:
26-30
skill:
−83.11
they picked:
LAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
47.62
baseline:
91.59
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
4
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Indianapolis Colts 26 — Texans 23
“Texans at Colts Projected score : Colts 26, Texans 23”
Indianapolis Colts
Colts 19–17called Colts by 3 · won by 2
97.62Hit
97.62 − 96.35 naive = 1.27 × 1.89 difficulty = +2.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Texans by 1.5, total 41.5 · this 26–23 calls a Colts win (by 3; the line gave the Colts 47%) and more points (49).
How this was scored
score:
17-19
skill:
2.39
they picked:
IND
season:
2026
accuracy:
97.62
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals 27 — Steelers 20
“Bengals at Steelers Projected score : Bengals 27, Steelers 20”
Cincinnati Bengals
Steelers 30–27called Bengals by 7 · lost by 3
40.48Close
40.48 − 93.97 naive = −53.49 × 1.89 difficulty = −101.11 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Bengals by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 27–20 calls a bigger Bengals win (by 7) and more points (47).
How this was scored
score:
27-30
skill:
−101.11
they picked:
CIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
40.48
baseline:
93.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?
Detroit Lions 33 — Jets 21
“Projected score : Lions 33, Jets 21”
Detroit Lions
Lions 31–24called Lions by 12 · won by 7
88.1Hit
88.1 − 84.45 naive = 3.65 × 1.89 difficulty = +6.89 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Lions by 7, total 49.5 · this 33–21 calls a bigger Lions win (by 12) and more points (54).
How this was scored
score:
24-31
skill:
6.89
they picked:
DET
season:
2026
accuracy:
88.1
baseline:
84.45
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
12
Think this is wrong?
Tennessee Titans 23 — Giants 20
“Titans at Giants Projected score : Titans 23, Giants 20”
Tennessee Titans
Giants 12–7called Titans by 3 · lost by 5
45.24Close
45.24 − 89.21 naive = −43.97 × 1.89 difficulty = −83.11 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Giants by 2.5, total 37.5 · this 23–20 calls a Titans win (by 3; the line gave the Titans 46%) and more points (43).
How this was scored
score:
7-12
skill:
−83.11
they picked:
TEN
season:
2026
accuracy:
45.24
baseline:
89.21
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens 31 — Cowboys 29
“Ravens at Cowboys (in Brazil) Projected score : Ravens 31, Cowboys 29”
Baltimore Ravens
Ravens 34–31called Ravens by 2 · won by 3
97.62Hit
97.62 − 43.97 naive = 53.65 × 1.89 difficulty = +101.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Ravens by 3, total 53.5 · this 31–29 calls a closer game (Ravens by 2) and more points (60).
How this was scored
score:
34-31
skill:
101.39
they picked:
BAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
97.62
baseline:
43.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
2
Think this is wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 — Patriots 21
“Patriots at Jaguars Projected score : Jaguars 23, Patriots 21”
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars 35–6called Jaguars by 2 · won by 29
50Close
50 − 50 naive = 0 × 1.89 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Jaguars by 3, total 46.5 · this 23–21 calls a closer game (Jaguars by 2) and fewer points (44).
How this was scored
score:
6-35
skill:
0
they picked:
JAX
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
50
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
29
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
2
Think this is wrong?
New Orleans Saints 24 — Raiders 20
“Projected score : Saints 24, Raiders 20”
New Orleans Saints
Raiders 35–27called Saints by 4 · lost by 8
40.48Close
40.48 − 32.07 naive = 8.41 × 1.89 difficulty = +15.89 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Saints by 3.5, total 43.5 · this 24–20 calls a bigger Saints win (by 4) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
35-27
skill:
15.89
they picked:
NO
season:
2026
accuracy:
40.48
baseline:
32.07
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
8
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
4
Think this is wrong?
Seattle Seahawks 27 — Commanders 17
“Projected score : Seahawks 27, Commanders 17”
Seattle Seahawks
Commanders 33–31called Seahawks by 10 · lost by 2
30.95Miss
30.95 − 96.35 naive = −65.4 × 1.89 difficulty = −123.61 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Seahawks by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 10) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
31-33
skill:
−123.61
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
30.95
baseline:
96.35
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
2
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
Carolina Panthers 24 — Browns 21
“Panthers at Browns Projected score : Panthers 24, Browns 21”
Carolina Panthers
Browns 21–18called Panthers by 3 · lost by 3
50Close
50 − 93.97 naive = −43.97 × 1.89 difficulty = −83.11 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Panthers by 2.5, total 41.5 · this 24–21 calls a bigger Panthers win (by 3) and more points (45).
How this was scored
score:
18-21
skill:
−83.11
they picked:
CAR
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
93.97
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
San Francisco 49ers 33 — Cardinals 23
“Cardinals at 49ers Projected score : 49ers 33, Cardinals 23”
San Francisco 49ers
49ers 36–30called 49ers by 10 · won by 6
90.48Hit
90.48 − 86.83 naive = 3.65 × 1.89 difficulty = +6.89 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): 49ers by 7.5, total 48.5 · this 33–23 calls a bigger 49ers win (by 10) and more points (56).
How this was scored
score:
30-36
skill:
6.89
they picked:
SF
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
86.83
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
6
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
10
Think this is wrong?
Minnesota Vikings 23 — Buccaneers 21
“Vikings at Buccaneers Projected score : Vikings 23, Buccaneers 21”
Minnesota Vikings
Vikings 23–16called Vikings by 2 · won by 7
88.1Hit
88.1 − 34.45 naive = 53.65 × 1.89 difficulty = +101.39 skill
Closing line (Sep 27): Vikings by 1.5, total 42.5 · this 23–21 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 2) and more points (44).
How this was scored
score:
23-16
skill:
101.39
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
88.1
baseline:
34.45
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
7
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
0.47
predicted margin:
2
Think this is wrong?
Green Bay Packers 26 — Falcons 21
“Falcons at Packers (Thursday) Projected score : Packers 26, Falcons 21”
Green Bay Packers
Falcons 35–14called Packers by 5 · lost by 21
11.9Miss
11.9 − 0 naive = 11.9 × 1.89 difficulty = +22.5 skill
Closing line (Sep 24): Packers by 4.5, total 43.5 · this 26–21 calls a bigger Packers win (by 5) and more points (47).
How this was scored
score:
35-14
skill:
22.5
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
11.9
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
21
weeks left when called:
16
naive home margin:
−0.45
predicted margin:
5
Think this is wrong?

Availability Calls3 waitingShow ▸

“Jaxson Dart (knee) could miss the entire season ... all of them will likely be sidelined for Week 3”
Jaxson Dart New York Giants
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
“Some may be back sooner than later, but all of them will likely be sidelined for Week 3”
Caleb Williams Chicago Bears
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
“Jayden Daniels (elbow) will miss time ... all of them will likely be sidelined for Week 3”
Jayden Daniels Washington Commanders
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Depth Chart Calls1 waitingShow ▸

Marcus Mariota to be 1st on the depth chart
“With Daniels sidelined, Marcus Mariota (who has lost six of his last seven starts) gets the nod”
Marcus Mariota Washington Commanders
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Others on the same people

Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.
Parker Hurley · Roster Spot Calls · Khalid Kareem · Miss 0
Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.
John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.

More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Close 55
Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.
Pat Fitzmaurice · Score Predictions · New England Patriots · Miss 14
Fitzmaurice predicted a 24-21 Patriots win over the Packers, said they would not be surprised if Jonathan Taylor were inactive amid trade talk, pegged Jonah Coleman as an RB22 rest-of-season value, expected Evan Hull to be Arizona's backup back, and saw Kerby Joseph returning in Week 10 or 11.
Chris Simms · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Hit 81
Simms gave a predicted final score for every Week 9 game, picking the Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Patriots, Seahawks, Texans, Bears and Bills, and also said they wouldn't be shocked to see Jacksonville reach the AFC Championship Game.
Nick Wright · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Hit 83
Wright made several outright game calls for Week 9 alongside their spread picks: Kansas City beating the Jets 31-20, Detroit winning at Miami, New England edging Green Bay by a field goal or so, Carolina winning outright over Denver, and Houston blowing out the Chargers 27-12.
Zac Cornelius · Score Predictions · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 29
Zach projected the Buccaneers to beat the Bears 24-12.
Richard Sherman · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Close 74
Sherman ranked the 49ers first in their Week 9 top five ahead of Buffalo, Chicago, Jacksonville and Denver, picked every Week 9 game with scores, and gave midseason award picks headlined by Brock Purdy for MVP and Kyle Shanahan for Coach of the Year.