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Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 28, 2026

Sullivan picked the Eagles to beat the Bears 26-20.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

17Miss · out of 100
Bears 27–7What happenedcalled Eagles by 6 · lost by 20
54.46A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
16.67This callout of 100
#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

Tyler Sullivan's pick: Eagles 26-20 over Bears
Our reading: Philadelphia Eagles 26 — Bears 20
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
NFL Week 3 winners and losers, plus J.J. McCarthy dealt to Giants and Eagles-Bears picks for Monday night
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 28
  2. PlayedSep 28
  3. GradedSep 29

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 16.7 out of 100, against 54.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles 26 — Bears 20

    What happenedBears 27–7called Eagles by 6 · lost by 20
    16.67Miss · naive 54.46
    16.67this call54.46a naive guess−37.79worse than naive1.89difficulty−71.44skill

    Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 26–20 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 6) and more points (46).

    How this was scored
    score:
    7-27
    skill:
    −71.44
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    16.67
    baseline:
    54.46
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    20
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    0.88
    predicted margin:
    6
    Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

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