Logan PhillipsOct 20, 2026

Phillips's forecast gives Democrats roughly a 70% chance of winning the Senate, and they expect Democrats to take the Texas Senate seat while Republicans hold South Carolina. In the House they see a median outcome of about 233 Democratic seats, a gain of roughly 20, and they also expect Democrats to win the presidency in 2028.

Said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and SaagarHear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting

66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2Races calledevery call on each below

3Waitingnot graded yet

What Logan Phillips said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think they're going to win Texas. And I think Kansas is a toss up.

Logan Phillips, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar
The episode: 10/20/26: Wild Potential Midterm Scenarios, GOP Abandons Trump, MAGA Implosion Weeks Before Midterms
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 20
Election DayNov 3
GradedNov 10

1Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas“I just don't know if it's different enough for Democrats to win. I think they're going to win Texas.”
2Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina“they might be able to be safe in places like South Carolina, for example, which I think they're going to win, but is in play”
3Control of Congress“Democrats would have about a 30% chance instead of about a 70% chance in the Senate.”
4Seat Counts“to me the median scenario is like Democrats 233 in the house”
5Democrats to win“I think in 2028, Democrats will more likely than not win the White House.”
6Seat Counts“It's not that much because Democrats barely lost the house last two cycles and so it'd be like a gain of like 20 seats.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas¹	Race Winners	James Talarico won	100	0	+102
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina²	Race Winners	Annie Andrews won	0	0	0
“Democrats would have about a 30% chance instead of about a 70%…”³	Control of Congress	—	100	0	+102
“to me the median scenario is like Democrats 233 in the house”⁴	Seat Counts	—	—	—	—
Democrats to win⁵	Race Winners	—	—	—	—
“It's not that much because Democrats barely lost the house last…”⁶	Seat Counts	—	—	—	—
6 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 3 waiting			66.7	0

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

6 checkable claims — 3 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Race Winners
Democrats to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
What happenedJames Talarico woncalled, not yet certified
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2026-senate-tx
election year:
2026
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
James Talarico
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
James Talarico
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
2Race Winners
Republicans to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
What happenedAnnie Andrews woncalled Darline Graham
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.02difficulty0skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2026-senate-sc
election year:
2026
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2026
who won:
Annie Andrews
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Darline Graham
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
3Control of Congress
“Democrats would have about a 30% chance instead of about a 70% chance in the Senate.”
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.02difficulty+102skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2026
skill:
102
topic:
elections
in their words:
about a 70% chance
result from:
wikipedia-2026: Wikipedia's 2026 election results tables (race summary tables, which relay the Associated Press race calls), read 2026-11-07: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections . Facts only; CC BY-SA.
chamber:
2026-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
13
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2026-11-03
the result is:
called
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
4Seat Counts
“to me the median scenario is like Democrats 233 in the house”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
5Race Winners
Democrats to win
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
6Seat Counts
“It's not that much because Democrats barely lost the house last two cycles and so it'd be like a gain of like 20 seats.”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
66.7naive 0

The races in this take

every call on each

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More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.